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Thursday, January 28th

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bobcat1
Moxiegrl77
jsowers77
doc98
reality_007
Breckenridge150
weatherplus
pnmedia
KSPR Kevin Lighty
Greatness
snowman
NixaDorothy
WeatherWarriorJesselee
Mindi
Gary_Monett
Stormsfury
skywarn82
Stormman
weather37
MichaelD
weloveourhailey
KSPR Craig Carnesi
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Thursday, January 28th - Page 2 Empty Re: Thursday, January 28th

Post  Gary_Monett Sun Jan 24, 2010 5:11 pm

Stormsfury wrote:I certainly wouldn't bite off on the operational GFS at this point. Most storms in our region this winter have had the GFS showing a more southern path only to verify further north and west. This one is far from being consensus.

Bingo. This will be a nail biter for sure. These types of systems where you have the potential for snow, rain, freezing rain, and sleet depending on the thermal profiles of the atmosphere are the most frustrating types of systems in my opinion. Buckle up everyone!
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Thursday, January 28th - Page 2 Empty Re: Thursday, January 28th

Post  weather37 Sun Jan 24, 2010 5:21 pm

The 18Z Operational GFS shifted the storm a little farther north! Looks like the bulk of the precipitation at this point will be from the Missouri/Arkansas border south. This run of the GFS puts more precipitation in the Springfield area. Lots of things can change and probably will change!

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Post  weloveourhailey Sun Jan 24, 2010 5:53 pm

Would you guys say Springfield is safe from a bad ice storm?

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Thursday, January 28th - Page 2 Empty Re: Thursday, January 28th

Post  Stormsfury Sun Jan 24, 2010 8:23 pm

No way would I say S'field is safe at this point. My guess is the next 24 hrs of model runs, namely the GFS, are going to start painting a rather ominous picture for all of SW MO. I fully expect another N shift on the GFS tonite and showing a direct hit of winter weather over all of N AR and S MO. Just my 2 cents of course!

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Post  snowman Sun Jan 24, 2010 9:53 pm

Hey all, I have been extremely busy and not had much time to play with weather ideas. BUT, In my opinion this has the best potential we have had yet at some 6 plus snow accums. This is just my opinion........but I believe the Operational GFS is too far South as is usually the case. If you look at the Ensemble runs of the GFS they are all farther North. If you also look at the Euro and even the Canadian this brings in nice snows right along and south of the I44 corridor. I believe you will start seeing a northern shift of the Op GFS as we get closer. I would definitely give at least a 50% chance of some nice snows. If this does what I think it will do I would expect to see some nice 6 to 8 inch snow totals with locally higher amounts. I believe the main zr threat will be in the far southern viewing area, but I know you cannot rule out zr anywhere completely yet....I would not be surprised to see some heavy sleet fall as well. I just dont see this as being a huge zr event for anyone along the I44 corridor...but south of that could be. It will be fun to watch the GFS do its little north to south dance. There also looks to be another decent storm on the way a few days after this one gets done. Looks like 500mb temps go below 0 and stay there for a while. Welcome back winter (right on schedule) I may have more thoughts later tonight after a quick look at new runs.

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Thursday, January 28th - Page 2 Empty Re: Thursday, January 28th

Post  snowman Sun Jan 24, 2010 10:15 pm

Just got done looking at the NAM............It has shifted much farther North out to 84 hours. Will be interesting to see if the GFS starts to follow. New Nam much more in line with the GEM than the GFS. GFS runs later tonight will be interesting.

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Thursday, January 28th - Page 2 Empty Re: Thursday, January 28th

Post  KSPR Craig Carnesi Sun Jan 24, 2010 10:40 pm

Watching the 00z run of the GFS come in now. I will say this, SOMEONE in the KSPR Viewing area will be dealing with ice, someone will be dealing with snow... Laughing

On a serious note, my gut feeling at this point is that Northern Arkansas has the highest chance of dealing with an ice storm situation. 44 may serve as a decent spot to draw in the cutoff of the higher snow totals. I'll try to get back on here after the 00z GFS completes.

Either way winter is back, there is no denying that.
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Post  weloveourhailey Sun Jan 24, 2010 10:53 pm

Yeah I agree Springfield could get 3-4 inches of snow but Northern Ark and extreme southern mo could be in the cross hairs for an ice storm. Springfield's ice will be very limited!

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Thursday, January 28th - Page 2 Empty Re: Thursday, January 28th

Post  weloveourhailey Sun Jan 24, 2010 11:11 pm

The latest model run pushes everything way south of Springfield. Moisture looks limited for Springfield metro. Arkansas watch out!

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Post  NixaDorothy Mon Jan 25, 2010 12:10 am

So, Craig, when you say 44 will be a decent cutoff of the higher snow totals, does that mean that north of 44 will see more snow and south of 44 more ice? Thanks for giving us a heads up on this storm.

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Thursday, January 28th - Page 2 Empty Re: Thursday, January 28th

Post  skywarn82 Mon Jan 25, 2010 4:49 am

THE 00Z NAM RUN SHOWED THE STORM FARTHER NORTH BUT HAS WENT BACK SOUTH ON ITS 06Z RUN I THINK THE GFS HAS A GOOD IDEA OF THE STORM TRACK PLUS THE EURO MODEL IS SOUTH TO SO I SEE KNOW REASON TO ARGUE WITH THE GFS AT THIS TIME THE GFS ESMEBELS ALSO IS SOUTH WITH THE STORM AND IS CONSISTENT WITH THE REST OF THE MODLES I BELIEVE YOU ALL IN MISSOURI NORTH OF I-44 MAY NOT SEE NOTHING LIKE AT LAKE OF THE OZARKS PEOPLE IN SPRINGFIELD AND POINTS SOUTH WILL SEE SNOW DOWN HERE IN ARKANSAS WERE I LIVE IT MAY NOT BE SO PRETTY THE WAY IT LOOKS IT LOOKS LIKE A DOOM AND GLOOM FOR ME !!!

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Thursday, January 28th - Page 2 Empty Re: Thursday, January 28th

Post  Gary_Monett Mon Jan 25, 2010 7:17 am

I think the 12z and 0z model runs will be crucial to see if they continue to suppress this storm to the south or if there might happen to be a northward push. Based on the surface pattern and the fact that the models have consistently pushed everything too far south this winter, I can't help keep that in the back of my mind.

I can only imagine how many questions the students will have at school this morning. Oh boy! Here we go! pirat
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Post  Greatness Mon Jan 25, 2010 1:24 pm

I was wondering what everyone's thoughts are on the 12z run. Is it just me or does it look like it might be shifting it to the north a little bit? The 0z should be interesting!

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Post  weloveourhailey Mon Jan 25, 2010 1:52 pm

Yes it did shift north a bit. I think it will continue to do so. Springfield heads up!

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Post  KSPR Kevin Lighty Mon Jan 25, 2010 5:37 pm

Here is the latest GFS snowfall forecast model

Thursday, January 28th - Page 2 Gfssnowrun
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Post  Mindi Mon Jan 25, 2010 6:57 pm

Very interesting...I am anxious to see the next few model runs. This could prove to be the BIG ONE!! cheers
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Thursday, January 28th - Page 2 Empty Re: Thursday, January 28th

Post  weather37 Mon Jan 25, 2010 7:05 pm

Uh Oh! 18Z Model Run shifted the storm more north. It now looks like Springfield could see a lot of snow. I know it's only one model run, but it seems like today's model runs gradually shifted the storm more to the north. Very excited to see what the 0Z puts out tonight!

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Post  Stormman Mon Jan 25, 2010 8:03 pm

Latest 18Z GFS shows Springfield getting in on the heavy snowfall. I'm interested to see what the 00Z is showing later this evening!

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Post  Stormman Mon Jan 25, 2010 9:40 pm

I don't like to focus on just one particular model, I change it up and the overall pattern is leaning towards lots of snow from I44 points South. Latest SREF model guidance shows at least a 3 to 6" snowfall locally higher I think here in SGF. But you head towards the Branson and points East looks real good. I'm interested to see how this plays out!

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Post  skywarn82 Mon Jan 25, 2010 10:11 pm

IT LOOKS LIKE THE 00Z NAM MODEL IS SLOWING THE SYSTEM DOWN JUST LIKE THE EURO MODEL SHOWED ON ITS 12Z RUN THIS IS INTRESTING BECAUSE THIS WILL MAKE THE PRECIP HANG AROUND LONGER THIS STORM WILL BE SOMETHING TO SEE!!!

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Post  Stormman Mon Jan 25, 2010 10:17 pm

Agreed It does appear that the NAM has slowed this system down, i feel bad for those of you who live in Arkansas. A devasting ICE STORM thats no fun.Sad


Last edited by Stormman on Mon Jan 25, 2010 10:39 pm; edited 1 time in total

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Post  Greatness Mon Jan 25, 2010 10:19 pm

Is the latest model showing anything for the Springfield area, or is it shifting it south again?

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Thursday, January 28th - Page 2 Empty Re: Thursday, January 28th

Post  weather37 Mon Jan 25, 2010 10:21 pm

More precipitation is showing up in Springfield with each model run.

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Post  Stormman Mon Jan 25, 2010 10:24 pm

00Z will be in soon. My guess is that it's gonna continue to place SGF in some pretty decent snow totals. Still 3 days out, lets see what happens!

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Post  pnmedia Mon Jan 25, 2010 10:31 pm

Do these models tend to over estimate? Also how much can they typically change this far out?

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