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Thursday, February 4

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tasha221
cardsfan
NixaDorothy
Godzilla1954
de_ja_vu
KSPR Craig Carnesi
KSPR Kevin Lighty
reality_007
bigdrepublic
springfieldnewsnut
Stormsfury
skywarn82
weatherplus
weloveourhailey
Gary_Monett
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Thursday, February 4 Empty Thursday, February 4

Post  Gary_Monett Sun Jan 31, 2010 12:32 pm

I don't know if it will come to fruition or not, but the 12z GFS model has decided to make the mid-week storm much wetter and some colder than earlier forecast. Time to start model watching!!! Very Happy
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Post  weloveourhailey Sun Jan 31, 2010 3:28 pm

To me it looks like it could be a freezing rain event a little further north than the last one, possibly affecting nixa, ozark and springfield areas.

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Post  weatherplus Sun Jan 31, 2010 5:47 pm

I did notice that on the GFS too Gary. The NWS says that the GFS is going too cold with it and that the ECMWF model is warmer and that is what they are thinking. Probably just a cold rain. Speaking of the GFS, all the long range models now are pointing toward a very cold Feb starting around Feb 6th or 7th. Also noticed Climate Prediction Center made maps today showing below normal temps for this area from Feb. 6th thru 14th. Crazy how these models flip flop around!

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Post  skywarn82 Sun Jan 31, 2010 8:16 pm

HEY GARY IM ALSO WATCHING THAT STORM THE 12Z GFS IS A LITTLE STRONGER WITH IT THAN IT HAD BEEN SHOWING SOMETHING ELSE I HAVE BEEN WATCHING IS A STORM COMING AROUND THE 8TH OR 9TH THOUGH THIS IS STILL SEVERAL DAYS OUT THE IM WATCHING IT BECAUSE THE EURO SHOWS IT COULD BE A BIG WINTER STORM ALSO THE GFS IS SHOWING THAT STORM ALSO IT SHOW A BIG ARTIC AIR MASS COMING SOUTH THAT COULD SEND A TEMPS TO FREEZING ALL THE WAY TO THE GULF COAST SO WINTER MAY NOT BE DONE YET!!!


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Post  Stormsfury Sun Jan 31, 2010 9:27 pm

IMO winter is not gonna think about ending this year until at least early-mid March. Sorry all you warm lovers out there - not happening for a few more weeks - regardless of what the groundhog has to say this week!

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Post  springfieldnewsnut Sun Jan 31, 2010 10:21 pm

We can't be doing all this snow. I was afraid we'd have an active January-February. I'm ready for some spring for sure; I guess I'll just have to wait.
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Post  bigdrepublic Sun Jan 31, 2010 10:54 pm

Well, NWS isn't putting much stock into any winter type precip as of yet, the only thing the extended forecast mentions for Springfield Metro is a chance of rain on Friday with a high in the lo 40's. I think time will tell.

As far as beyond this week, I certainly doubt we are done with winter weather, although last year after our late January storm, we didn't have any other major event the rest of the season. Who knows?

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Post  Gary_Monett Sun Jan 31, 2010 11:13 pm

I think all bring up valid points. Regardless if the precip on Thursday is white or wet, the increasing precip. numbers from the models indicate to me we have some unsettled weather coming our way later this week. We will wait and see if this trend continues.

If the models continue to indicate another winter storm next week, we might want to start another thread for that.
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Post  reality_007 Sun Jan 31, 2010 11:40 pm

Gary, are you talking of this week coming up or the week after? I really hope we do get another winter storm...just wish it would cancel Arrow college classes.
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Post  KSPR Kevin Lighty Mon Feb 01, 2010 1:53 pm

12z gfs from Monday for snow on Fri.

Thursday, February 4 12zgfs10
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Post  weatherplus Mon Feb 01, 2010 3:41 pm

Looks like its picking up on 1-3 inches of snow. That is odd seeing that it may be too warm and possibly be rain. I think the big storm to watch is for the 8th/9th. Natalie mentioned that storm in her blog this morning.

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Post  weloveourhailey Mon Feb 01, 2010 6:20 pm

Everyone I am concerned about next weeks storm!! Looks like a possible ice storm for sw missouri!! Keep an eye on this!! Shocked

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Post  KSPR Craig Carnesi Mon Feb 01, 2010 9:52 pm

Gotta love it when the 18z GFS Bufkit Profile puts down over 5 inches of snow Friday...

Obviously this is too early to get too excited about it, but it is certainly worth keeping an eye on.

Thursday, February 4 2109gf10
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Post  KSPR Kevin Lighty Mon Feb 01, 2010 10:03 pm

18z GFS

Thursday, February 4 18zgfs10
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Post  weatherplus Tue Feb 02, 2010 9:12 am

Bring it on! By that time most of the snow will be melted and we will be ready for more!!!

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Post  bigdrepublic Tue Feb 02, 2010 11:07 am

Ok, NWS has a 50/50 shot of a Wintry Mix Thurs night. Are we looking at a substantial sleet/frz rain/snow event for Springfield Metro? Or is this looking like a small event at this point?

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Post  KSPR Craig Carnesi Tue Feb 02, 2010 1:09 pm

After the 0z last night dried things out a bit, the 12z today has "snowed" things up a bit again.

Thursday, February 4 Tuesda10

Here is the graphical output:

Thursday, February 4 12zgfs10
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Post  KSPR Craig Carnesi Tue Feb 02, 2010 1:17 pm

bigdrepublic wrote:Ok, NWS has a 50/50 shot of a Wintry Mix Thurs night. Are we looking at a substantial sleet/frz rain/snow event for Springfield Metro? Or is this looking like a small event at this point?

The latest model run that we posted above shows a decent amount of snow. I'm still not completely on board with that, but it certainly gets my attention.

The NAM on the other hand has us warmer, with a nearly all rain event.

Thursday, February 4 12z_na10

My advice, stay tuned. Kevin will have the latest tonight on the newscasts at 4, 6 and 10pm. The GFS may be a little too excited with the cold air. At the same time, the NAM may be a little too warm...

Ah, the joys of winter weather forecasting...
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Post  weatherplus Tue Feb 02, 2010 2:28 pm

That does look like alot of snow. Most sites like NWS, Weather Channel are calling it very minor with little if any accumulation. Still a few days out. I am sure the models will flip flop and we won't get a accurate reading on whats going to happen till about Thursday.

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Post  Gary_Monett Tue Feb 02, 2010 6:16 pm

The NAM is getting a little colder each run it appears to my unprofessional eye. This definitely needs to be watched now.

GFS still gung ho on this system.
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Post  KSPR Kevin Lighty Tue Feb 02, 2010 7:40 pm

18z GFS

Thursday, February 4 Gfs18z10
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Thursday, February 4 Empty Computer Weather Models

Post  de_ja_vu Tue Feb 02, 2010 9:38 pm

I am a newbie to this forum so bear with me. I have always been fascinated with weather and the changing seasons. So could someone help me out here with "computer models" predicting the upcoming weather? Who inputs the data that creates the models, our local weather people, or do they get it from the NWS? And has this type of forecasting made a weather forecaster nothing more than a "weather reader?" No disrespect intended at all, just curious. Do real human meteorological interpretations still take place and do just plain old "gut feelings" (pre-computer model days type of forecasting) enter into the forecast? Help me out...
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Post  KSPR Craig Carnesi Wed Feb 03, 2010 11:17 am

de_ja_vu wrote:I am a newbie to this forum so bear with me. I have always been fascinated with weather and the changing seasons. So could someone help me out here with "computer models" predicting the upcoming weather? Who inputs the data that creates the models, our local weather people, or do they get it from the NWS? And has this type of forecasting made a weather forecaster nothing more than a "weather reader?" No disrespect intended at all, just curious. Do real human meteorological interpretations still take place and do just plain old "gut feelings" (pre-computer model days type of forecasting) enter into the forecast? Help me out...

We love your questions... No disrespect taken...

The models, like the ones you see above, create a forecast based on previous, and more importantly, current conditions. No one person ingest that data into the computers. We talk about upper-air soundings, or balloon launches from time to time. Each weather service office across the country, as well as other installations, launch two balloons each day. Those balloons record different meteorological variables through each level of the atmosphere. That data is then ingested into the computers that run the models. A common phrase you will here a meteorologist use is that a computer models is only as good as the data ingested into it. Then the computer, using that initial data, runs a ton of computer algorithms that then predict what each level of the atmosphere will do over a period of time. Different models forecast out for different amounts of time. Different models also have different resolutions.

I don't want to bore you with too much about computer models so I'll stop there. In the end though, each model has different solutions based on the data inputted into them and the algorithms they run. Each model also has different bias' that meteorologists learn over time.

With all of that information in our heads, this is where the human factor comes in. No true meteorologist will create a forecast based solely on one computer model. We take all of the data from all of the models and create our own forecast from there. We will use the models here and on the air to show viewers an idea of what the future weather might look like. In the end though, our forecast is based upon our experience and knowledge.

I hope that answers your question, if not, let us know! That is what this forum is for and I'd be happy to go into more, or less detail!
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Thursday, February 4 Empty Re: Thursday February 4; Computer Models

Post  de_ja_vu Wed Feb 03, 2010 11:29 am

Great explanation and thanks for the prompt reply. I guess this question was brought to mind as I pondered what sort of forecasts would we get if for some reason our satellites and computers were not available to us. I then got to wondering how the "old timers" (Tom Dye comes to mind) did it back in their days...but as I recall they used to give us fairly accurate, heads-up weather data also. On the weather channel they have shown how the weather impacted the D-Day landing and in fact postponed it for a day or two. I believe they relied on aerial surveillance of the weather conditions at the time. As it turned out, the weather cleared just as the invasion was launched! Interesting stuff the weather...Thanks.
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Post  KSPR Craig Carnesi Wed Feb 03, 2010 11:38 am

Since we are talking models...

Here is the 0z GFS Snow Totals:

Thursday, February 4 0zgfss10

Here is the 12z NAM Snow Totals:

Thursday, February 4 12znam10

Thermal profiles are going to be the big key with this event. Kevin and I were talking yesterday about how we lean heavily toward rain first in this kind of scenario. Gary mentioned here though that it looked like with each run the NAM was cooling off. We're all right at this point. We have plenty of mixed precipitation falling across the Ozarks and surface temperatures may end up being the key with this event.

Stay tuned, as soon as I get the 12z GFS data in I'll post it as well.
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