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1st week in March

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Post  weathermatrix Thu Feb 18, 2010 8:05 pm

The first week in march looks like it could be stormy hopefully we see below freezing temps. Anyone have thoughts on this?

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Post  weathermatrix Fri Feb 19, 2010 5:48 pm

Its looking warm during this time frame

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Post  weatherplus Fri Feb 19, 2010 6:46 pm

Big storm for this area around March 2nd/3rd with rain then snow it looks like according to the GFS and then very cold temps to follow. The long range outlook for March is below normal temps and we are close to the above precip. Should be a fun month!!!

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/30day/off14_temp.gif
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/30day/off14_prcp.gif

weatherplus

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Post  Stormman Fri Feb 19, 2010 7:15 pm

Looking at 18z GFS looks like a big storm to impact the area, whether this will play out... not sure, the GFS has been horrible here lately on handling these storms.

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Post  weather37 Sat Feb 20, 2010 6:34 pm

Still looks like we could have a major storm around the 1st! It will be exciting to watch the GFS for the next couple of days to see if this will hold true!!

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Post  weatherplus Sat Feb 20, 2010 7:23 pm

Its hard to tell. I get excitied seeing the GFS long range models, but very rarely do they come true. From 7-10 days out its looks like a big winter storm or in severe weather storm in the spring is going to hammer SW MO, and then the day before it hits, the low shifts and misses us. Just a wait and see game. I don't think any weather model or meterologist predicted highs in the mid to upper 50's these past 2 days, so never know what the weather will do!

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Post  KSPR Craig Carnesi Sat Feb 20, 2010 10:16 pm

The GFS has a VERY difficult time with anything past 5-7 days this time of year because we are in a transition of seasons. You should never trust a model that far out anyhow, but you really can't this time of year.

The GFS had the storm moving in Feb. 21/22 dumping 12"+ of snow. Now we're going to get 1-2" of rain and very little snow.

This is what makes forecasting so much fun and why computers can never be trusted! ;-)
KSPR Craig Carnesi
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Post  weatherplus Sun Feb 21, 2010 9:34 am

Looking at the long range GFS today it has that storm the 1st week of March going way south of SW MO now. Shows hardly nothing at all for this area. Last night it was bullseye over this area. Just goes to show you that the model is a joke this far out.

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