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Monday March 8th

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Post  Stormman Fri Feb 26, 2010 9:13 pm

For now the weather is calm, but will it stay that way??? Well looking 228 hours out or about 9 days out there looks to be a system that "could" produce severe wx. Can it be warmer temps, and severe wx??? Looks like a 998mb low will develop out West and move into the Plains.
Monday March 8th 18z_gf15
A look at the jet stream around 300mb.
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/18/images/gfs_300_228l.gif
Above is a look at the jet stream, I have drawn a pink line to show that this trough is negatively tilt, which brings stronger wind shear environments. I like to look at the 500mb vort to get a feel of how strong a storm will be once it enters the Plains.
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/18/images/gfs_500_228l.gif
Then to get a good idea of where some of the strongest shear will be realized it's important to know what the LLJ is doing, below is a look at 850mb vort and followed up by the 850mb wind speed.
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/18/images/gfs_85v_228l.gif
This far out who knows, will it be the first chase of 2010??? I'm hoping so.... what a winter!

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Post  KSPR Craig Carnesi Fri Feb 26, 2010 10:22 pm

Kevin and I were talking about that system earlier today.

Way too soon to worry about it yet seeing as the GFS has been fairly consistent with missing the track on these storms.

It does look it will be warmer by the time that system gets close. Certainly something to keep an eye on. Meteorological Spring begins Monday!
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Post  Stormman Sat Feb 27, 2010 4:08 pm

12z gfs run this afternoon still showing a strong surface low tracking into the Plains, this time with a further South track. It appears that it will first track across the panhandle of TX/OK then NE thru N MO. Too early yet to get excited but the possibility is there.

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Post  Stormman Sat Feb 27, 2010 5:45 pm

A look at the latest 18z GFS. Monday March 8th Gfs_ten_204m
to view different models go to this website. http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmp/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/images/gfs_ten_204m.gif[/img]

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Post  weatherplus Sun Feb 28, 2010 9:03 am

Wouldn't get to excitied yet. Still about 8 days out from this possible storm. Severe weather has to have about 4 or 5 things come together. Most of the time all of those things aren't known till the day or two before. I am ready for some monster storms, but I am going to wait about 6 days and then take a look at the models as I am sure they will have kicked the system way away. Sad

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Post  Stormman Sun Feb 28, 2010 8:53 pm

It's gonna be fun to see how this system evolves, 18z GFS shows this system being a Sunday night into the early morning hours on Monday kinda of storm, overnight event. Still way too early to get all hyped up about it though.

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Post  Gary_Monett Mon Mar 01, 2010 7:31 am

I am just excited that it looks like we will it at least the lower to middle 60's ahead of this storm system!
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Post  Stormman Mon Mar 01, 2010 6:22 pm

I have got all week to get through, I will be so ready for the 8th to be here. It's time to gas the vehicle up and go chasing. I'm ready to see some verticle development with mesocyclones.Lol But it's still a week away... come on get here.

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Post  weatherplus Mon Mar 01, 2010 7:38 pm

I read that Reed Timmer will be chasing these storms on his website.

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Post  Gary_Monett Tue Mar 02, 2010 7:20 am

We should have a better handle on this system by the time that Thursday and Friday roll around. European model has the system much stronger and has a delayed onset of this potential event... late Monday night or early Tuesday morning. GFS is not as strong. Nothing yet on the Days 4-8 SPC probability map either. Something to keep an eye on though.
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Post  Stormman Tue Mar 02, 2010 10:04 pm

Looking at the latest 18z run, looks like by 18z Monday the system will still be sitting in SC Kansas. Models indicate at least 60F out ahead of this system, however the gfs showing an area in the Ozarks below 50F. My opinion is this, if we can realize some sunshine during the afternoon hours Monday it's gonna be much warmer, to add to that instability will be higher as well. This system is still 6 days out though, but bears watching over the next several days.

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Post  Bowtie Wed Mar 03, 2010 3:15 am

According to the 06z issuance forecast, the Dew Point Temperatures at this time will probably be too cool to allow much destabilization. The Dew Point Temps in our region are forecasted to be in the upper 30's to the lower 40's in the greater Springfield metro area with Dew Points possibly a few degrees warmer in the Neosho and Pineville areas. That said, I'm at this time forecasting showers or maybe an isolated thundershower during the day on Monday with high temps in the lower 60's. The "storms" would have a much better chance of becoming severe if the Dew Point were to be closer to the air temps. At this time I don't expect any severe thunderstorms with this system.
Smile


Last edited by Bowtie on Wed Mar 03, 2010 3:51 am; edited 1 time in total (Reason for editing : Corrected information)
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Post  Stormman Wed Mar 03, 2010 7:17 pm

With current model runs this no longer looks like it could produce severe storms here in the Ozarks, however I think if NE OK can get some destabilization that severe storms would be possible down that way. Is it worth traveling down that way? Right now if I had to guess.... ummm NO.Sad

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Post  weatherplus Wed Mar 03, 2010 7:41 pm

Just what I figured. This is why I don't look at long range GFS models anymore. They never seem to pan out. Just a light shower for Monday and isolated at that. Weather sure is boring lately which is why not many posts on the forum.

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