January 6th and 7th Snowfall Event

Well first off I would like to welcome all of you to the new KSPR Weather Forum. In this section we will talk about upcoming storms that may impact the Ozarks. Obviously the talk now is shifting towards the next snow for Wednesday and Thursday. Models continue to suggest another round of snow on the order of 3"-6" may be possible. Here is a look at the latest GFS model run from this afternoon.



We will continue to keep you updated on the latest. Remember the latest information on the weather will continue to be updated on the KSPR Weather Blog

I encourage all of you to continue and drive the discussion with your own thoughts and opinions, afterall that is what this new forum is all about.

Evening Kevin. I am anxiously watching this storm system myself. I am concerned that the low will track far enough north that we will miss out on much of the snow. I guess we will need to see about the trends with the latest models this evening.

Hopefully the low won't track too far north...I am always up for more snow!!

Let it snow, let it snow, let it snow.

The Farmer's Almanac says that on Jan. 3 and Jan. 6, 2010 we would have a combined total of 20 inches of snow. How much stock do you put in this prediction? I find it strange that they predicted we would get snow on the exact dates we are getting it.

This storm is easily a 3-5 inch snowfall with locally higher amounts. I think the Canadian model has been the most consist with the track and speed. The Canadian and GEM model both have been showing .30 to .40 QPF with this Clipper on steroids. We should easily have snow ratios in the 15-1 ratio you get high end advisory snow and maybe even low end warning snow amounts. This dry snow with high winds will cause allot of blowing and drifting of snow. By the way it does not appear like there is a true surface low to track but more of an inverted trough.

Holy moly... Springfield is already down to -1º tonight. I wonder how low they will go. The record today is -7º. That is crazy stuff. I know the topic is mainly focused on the upcoming snow, but I thought I would throw that out there. Sitting at +3º here right now. Wow.

Thanks Kevin for getting me set up. I am awaiting this storm. I too hope it doesn't track north. I always love the snow

I hear you Gary, When there is a nice snow cover it really makes it hard to figure out how low to go. I think -5 is likely. I would say next Saturday morning we will be looking at -10 to -15 with more fresh snow. Crazy stuff......more like a winter of old

WOW, I should of read what you said more clearly...Springifeld is already down to -1.....-7 might be with in reach.

I will be very surprised if the National Weather Service in Springfield does not issue a Winter Storm Watch by morning. The amount of snow that appears likely is maybe just a hair short of winter storm warning criteria but when you factor in the extreme wind chills and the amount of blowing and drifting of snow I think they will go with it. The only other way I can see this is if they issue a Winter weather advisory followed by a blowing snow and wind chill advisory. Will be interesting to see what they do

Kevin... was chatting with a former NWS met just a few minutes ago. He mentioned the possibility of a Winter Storm Watch for our area even though the heaviest snow may not fall in our area. He believes the combination of the wind chills, snow, and blowing snow might cause the National Weather Service to issue this.

Have you heard anything to confirm or deny this thinking?

Gary, I was just going over the newest run of the GFS, Which falls in line with the last run and the newest NAM. It does appear that the heaviest amounts may be over the North Eastern Ozarks like the Fort Wood and Rolla Area. However it still has Springfield even down to the Arkansas border getting a nice 3-4 inches of snow. The way it looks to me right now is this will be an area wide 3-5 inch snowfall with the possible 5 or even higher in the Rolla Area. I am not sure if they care if I show a link to any of the model precip amounts but this link is the precip amount through Thursday morning from the GFS. With ratios in the 15-1 or maybe even the 20-1 area you still get 3 or 4 down your way. I believe this system will look like an all out blizzard for a few hours with the wind and heavy snow falling for a short period of time. I also think you cannot rule out some lingering snow showers getting squeezed out of the atmosphere during the day Thursday which could easily give another inch on top of the 3-4 BUT AS FAR AS THE NWS ........I dont know anyone that works there or anything like that I was just thinking out loud.....I believe they should issue a winter storm watch, Because I dont believe this will be your typical 2-4 or 3-5 snow event. I believe if you are out in this at its peek it will be crazy with the wind blowing at 15 mph or higher and snowing fairly hard.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/00/images/gfs_p24_060l.gif

GFS slowly continues to back off on the snowfall for us. Hmm...

http://wxcaster.com/gis-gfs-snow-overlays.php3?STATIONID=SGF

Time to start watching the Nam more than the GFS. We are in the timeframe that the Nam usually nails it. By the way it should be rolling right now.

The latest model data suggests very little snow for Springfield.

Hailey... from what I can tell the models have come in a bit wetter this morning than yesterday evening. These clipper systems can put down snows that the models can't get a handle on. No one needs to look at more than last weekend's snowfall to see the possibility of wringing out excess moisture.

The big story beyond the snow will be the cold and bitter wind chills. These numbers are going to be brutal and that dangerous potential will be significant. Be prepared.

I look forward to hearing more from Craig, Natalie, and Kevin as they have time.

Im glad the big snows are going to be up north on this storm we could use a break from the big snows! My prediction Springfield may get about an inch out of this.

Could be worse...-17 low in Omaha on Friday

weloveourhailey wrote:Im glad the big snows are going to be up north on this storm we could use a break from the big snows! My prediction Springfield may get about an inch out of this.

If Springfield only gets an inch from this storm I would be very very surprised.

By the way, here is the text of the WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY we are now under:

...WINTER STORM TO IMPACT SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND SOUTHWEST MISSOURI...

.A WINTER STORM WILL TRACK THROUGH THE PLAINS INTO THE OZARKS
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. THE SNOW IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN ACROSS
SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND THE CENTRAL OZARKS AS EARLY AS WEDNESDAY
MORNING AND SPREAD EAST ACROSS THE REST OF SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH
CENTRAL MISSOURI WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT BEFORE TAPERING
OFF FROM WEST TO EAST THURSDAY. WIDESPREAD SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION
OF 2 TO 4 INCHES IS EXPECTED WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS
POSSIBLE. THE HIGHEST SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ARE ANTICIPATED OVER
CENTRAL MISSOURI. WIND GUSTS OF 30 TO 35 MPH WILL PRODUCE BLOWING
AND DRIFTING OF SNOW ALONG WITH REDUCED VISIBILITY AT TIMES
ESPECIALLY IN OPEN AREAS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING.
STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS WILL PRODUCE WIND CHILL VALUES AT TIMES
NEAR MINUS 15 DEGREES WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.

Anyone look at the precip from the new NAM. Its really throwing down some precip. Course I think this system will just have to wait till it starts to really know what its going to do. I think 6" somewhere in the area is very attainable.

The heaviest part of the storm is trending north!!!

Here is a look at my forecast for this upcoming snow.

Amounts will be lighter from Monett, to Branson and in NW Arkansas.

Higher amounts the further northeast you go, say towards Rolla.

Im not too sure but if you compare the runs against the current positioning of the low the models have it wrong and the low is positioned further south than the models are depicting. could be interesting.

I pretty much have to go with kevin's map. This is real close to the way I would draw it up. I believe that any one along the I44 from Springfield North East will have a nice solid 3-5 out of this. I believe down toward the Joplin area we are looking at a 2-4 event. Then I would say that around the Rolla area someone could see 6 or more. However like someone else mentioned on here the models just have a terrible time with these clipper type systems. They almost ALWAYS underestimate the amount of precip with them. Exactly like the Christmas storm.......I believe the NWS started out with a 1-2 inch prediction. Anyways enough said about that............I believe we will se near blizzard conditions at times on the day Thursday with light snow falling and High winds blowing the ground snow around. I still believe they should have gone with a Winter Storm warning for at least part of the area instead of a Winter weather advisory. But by and large our NWS office does a great job in my opinion. I also am looking for a blowing snow and wind chill advisory after noon on Thursday when the winter weather advisory ends if we are not in a warning by that time. But as you know this is the Ozarks and anything can happen