Snow This Weekend???

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Post  KSPR Kevin Lighty on Mon Mar 15, 2010 5:46 pm

GFS model for snow Saturday night into Sunday. Yea I know, it's just not right

Snow This Weekend??? Snowon10
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Post  weatherplus on Mon Mar 15, 2010 6:50 pm

It may snow some, but I bet it won't stick. We haven't had temps below freezing for quite awhile so the ground will be warm.

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Post  NixaDorothy on Thu Mar 18, 2010 1:06 am

I looked at a model that showed us getting 2-3 inches of snow. I don't see how that's possible with the warm temps we've had lately. Any thoughts?

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Post  Bowtie on Thu Mar 18, 2010 6:40 am

NixaDorothy wrote:I looked at a model that showed us getting 2-3 inches of snow. I don't see how that's possible with the warm temps we've had lately. Any thoughts?

Yes, I think it's still very much possible for us to receive accumulating snow even though we have had temperatures anywhere from the 50's to the low 70's lately. While for the most part the Earth's surface has thawed out considerably, all it would take to receive accumulating snow this late in the Winter season is a cold rain followed by several hours of just above or better yet sub-freezing temperatures with winds out of the northwest driving in cold Canadian air.

Next, here is what the NAM is predicting in the way of snow accumulations this weekend:
[img]Snow This Weekend??? 84_hou10[/img]

Next, here is what the HPC is predicting. First is the probability of accumulations of at least 4 inches:
[img]Snow This Weekend??? Day_3_14[/img]

Next, here is the probability of snow accumulations of at least 8 inches, also forecasted by the HPC:
[img]Snow This Weekend??? Day_3_15[/img]

Last, here is the probability of accumulations of at least 12 inches:
[img]Snow This Weekend??? Day_3_16[/img]

As I mentioned not long ago, you've got to be careful to not count your chickens before they hatch this time of the year. Just because it may get up into the 60's or even the 70's doesn't necessarily mean Winter is over for good until say November. We still have the remainder of this month and all of April to get through.
Smile
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Post  matt_in_fair_grove on Thu Mar 18, 2010 9:58 am

Snow This Weekend??? Gfs10

I think the GFS is losing its mind. That said, I wouldn't mind a surprise March snowstorm.

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Post  Mindi on Thu Mar 18, 2010 5:55 pm

What is the latest on this weekends storm?
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Post  weatherplus on Thu Mar 18, 2010 7:26 pm

All models have pretty much took the snow out for us now. Kansas, Oklahoma and NW MO will get the snow. I expect no accumlation for the Springfield metro area. Ground too warm and mostly rain event for us.

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Post  Stormman on Thu Mar 18, 2010 8:45 pm

IMO this event will be too warm, SGF may get some light snowfall on some the grassy surfaces. Plus the ground is too warm. I'm ready to shove winter out, get spring in. It's time to chase on the Plains.

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Post  KSPR Kevin Lighty on Fri Mar 19, 2010 12:41 am

GFS
Snow This Weekend??? Gfssno11

NAM
Snow This Weekend??? Namsno10
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Snow This Weekend??? Empty Re: Snow This Weekend??? / Winter Storm Watch

Post  Bowtie on Fri Mar 19, 2010 5:19 am

A Winter Storm Watch has been issued by the National Weather Service forecast office in Springfield.

Here is the Watch information:

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
415 AM CDT FRI MAR 19 2010

...A SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM TO IMPACT THE OZARKS AND SOUTHEAST
KANSAS LATE SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY...

.A STRONG AREA OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER EASTERN
OKLAHOMA ON SATURDAY AND MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN ARKANSAS OVER THE
WEEKEND. THIS AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL INGEST LARGE AMOUNTS OF
MOISTURE THAT WILL PRODUCE PRECIPITATION OVER THE OZARKS AND
SOUTHEAST KANSAS IN THE MIXED FORM OF RAIN...SNOW...AND SLEET.
SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF SNOW AND SLEET ACCUMULATION ARE POSSIBLE
ACROSS WESTERN MISSOURI AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS. THIS STORM
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO EXIT THE AREA LATE ON SUNDAY.

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055-066>068-077>080-088>091-093>095-101>104-
191800-
/O.NEW.KSGF.WS.A.0003.100321T0000Z-100322T0000Z/
BOURBON-CRAWFORD-CHEROKEE-BENTON-VERNON-ST. CLAIR-HICKORY-BARTON-
CEDAR-POLK-DALLAS-JASPER-DADE-GREENE-WEBSTER-NEWTON-LAWRENCE-
CHRISTIAN-MCDONALD-BARRY-STONE-TANEY-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...FORT SCOTT...PITTSBURG...
BAXTER SPRINGS...COLUMBUS...WARSAW...COLE CAMP...NEVADA...
APPLETON CITY...OSCEOLA...HERMITAGE...LAMAR...EL DORADO SPRINGS...
STOCKTON...BOLIVAR...BUFFALO...JOPLIN...CARTHAGE...GREENFIELD...
SPRINGFIELD...MARSHFIELD...ROGERSVILLE...NEOSHO...AURORA...
MOUNT VERNON...NIXA...OZARK...ANDERSON...PINEVILLE...MONETT...
CASSVILLE...KIMBERLING CITY...GALENA...BRANSON...FORSYTH
415 AM CDT FRI MAR 19 2010

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH
SUNDAY EVENING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SPRINGFIELD HAS ISSUED A WINTER
STORM WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH
SUNDAY EVENING.

* TIMING AND AREAS AFFECTED... RAIN WILL CHANGE OVER TO A MIX OF
RAIN...SLEET...AND SNOW LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING
PRIMARILY AFFECTING AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF HIGHWAY 65.
PRECIPITATION WILL LAST THROUGH SUNDAY.

* SNOW AND SLEET ACCUMULATION... AREAS OF WESTERN MISSOURI AND
EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS MAY SEE SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF OVER
6 INCHES. SOME OF THE PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO FALL AS
SLEET. THIS COULD WORK TO REDUCE SNOWFALL AMOUNTS.

* IMPACTS... ROAD CONDITIONS MAY QUICKLY DETERIORATE AS SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATES THROUGH THE DAY ON SUNDAY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER STORM WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT
SNOW AND SLEET ACCUMULATIONS THAT MAY IMPACT TRAVEL. CONTINUE TO
MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS.

&&

$$

KARDELL

Next, here is a map depicting the counties included in the Watch:
Snow This Weekend??? Winter10
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Post  Mindi on Fri Mar 19, 2010 12:24 pm

Looks like someone is going to get a lot of snow this weekend!! cheers cheers cheers
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Post  Stormman on Fri Mar 19, 2010 4:11 pm

Looking at temperature profiles and the current track of our storm, I think it will be highly unlikely for the Springfield area to recieve a significant snow from this event. Now for the locations from highway 71 corridor points Westward stand the best chance of seeing significant snowfall totals in excess of 6". 12z run of both the NAM and the GFS are in line with my thinking as is the SREF, with that said I think SGF will get some snow maybe a dusting to 2" if we are lucky. The NWS will put out a Winter wx advisory from the current winter storm warning points East. Looking down the pipe no significant wx makers look possible until the 330 to 384 hour.... and thats too far away to put any kind of stock into at all.

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Post  weatherplus on Fri Mar 19, 2010 6:38 pm

I don't see us in the Springfield area getting anything but heavy rain. If we even see a snowflake out of this storm I would be surprised. Thought the folks over in KS and OK better get ready for a blizzard!!!

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Post  weatherplus on Fri Mar 19, 2010 11:45 pm

NWS calling for a freezing rain event for Springfield now. Anyone else picking up on this? I could see that happening before a accumlating snow as the upper air temps will be colder and the rain could freeze on elevated objects as opposed to snow trying to stick on the warm ground.

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Post  NixaDorothy on Sat Mar 20, 2010 12:14 am

Earlier today I was looking at the NWS graphic forecast and it was showing our area getting only mixed precip and ice for this event. I hope winter's last hurrah isn't an ice storm.

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Post  weatherplus on Sat Mar 20, 2010 8:51 pm

Boy was I wrong with this one. There has been over a foot of snow just to the north and west of the Sprngfield area. I got about a inch just west of town and its coming down hard! Only good thing for snow haters is that it will be all gone very quickly. This storm reminds me of March 2008. Here in Springfield we got 9 inches of snow and several areas just down the road got nothing. All of that melted within a couple days as well.

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Post  Gary_Monett on Sat Mar 20, 2010 8:57 pm

Sitting at 4.5" here in Monett... I just had to drive in from Joplin. MO 37 is in horrible shape. I didn't think I would make it home. There was some sort of accident on the curve coming into Pierce City. Firefighters were diverting traffic down a back road around it. The nice man said "if you want to make it home, you must keep going. Slow down, but don't stop or you will join all of the others."

I had to follow his advice literally. Coming out of Pierce City toward Monett there were seven cars stuck IN THE ROAD in my lane. I passed on the left. I felt bad for leaving them there... I really did, but I could do nothing if I stopped.

I am so lucky to have not gotten stuck.

Stay inside everyone!!!
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Post  DU411 on Sun Mar 21, 2010 8:06 pm

Wow!!! quite a snow. ended up with 11.5" in Stockton. Was not expecting that much, but will certainly take it. Great late snow storm, know it is time for spring, Goodbye winter.

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