Monday/Tuesday May 10/11

First look at a another system that could play a role in another round of severe t storms.

Man I hope so. Hopefully WE can see some action around here instead of it skipping us again....

Things look to be coming together for a significant severe weather outbreak. Everyone keep posted to the latest forecasts.

what is the latest information we have on this severe weather outbreak? I've been reading the forecast discussions from NWS and they aren't mentioning anything other than possible convection systems coming next week. ....come on severe weather!...

The model data tends to indicate someone across the Plains is going to get slammed... the question is: who and where? That will get ironed out over the coming days, but in the meantime... CAPE is forecasted over 3000 in advance of the dryline... SE surface winds, SW upper level winds, and a disturbance are coming together to cause problems.

I think it might be a good chase day. What does everyone else think?

I agree! I am looking very forward to getting out and chasing some good storms! I hope to see an awesome tornado, but over an open field in Kansas or Oklahoma!

I agree. New models runs should help clarify later today and tomorrow.

When you see this wording the day before an event it has to send a shiver up your spine:

***SUPERCELLS WITH LONG-TRACK STRONG TORNADOES AND VERY LARGE HAIL
EXPECTED MONDAY LATE AFTN/EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF CNTRL/N OK...SE KS
AND SW MO***

That is from the Storm Prediction Center.

I know! All the ingredients are going to be there for a huge outbreak it is appearing! Everyone, stay safe and keep your eyes on KSPR or The National Weather Service for more updates regarding tomorrow's outbreak

Massive tornado outbreak looks very likely tomorrow afternoon/evening for people living along and just west of HWY 71. Tomorrow is May 10th and that will be the 2 year anniversary of the monster tornado that hit the seneca area. There is already a moderate risk for severe storms 36 hours before it starts. I except a high risk come tomorrow morning. For all you chasers out there get ready!!! Looks like the Springfield area will just get some wind and hail because the storm will form into a squall line by the time it gets here and reduce the chance of any tornadoes.

NWS has put out a extreme risk for severe weather for late tomorrow afternoon. 1st time they have ever done this.

http://www.crh.noaa.gov/sgf/?n=dec_sup_svrstorm_day2

Wow I saw that but I didn't know they've never done that before.

In case you didn't know, Chief Meteorologist Kevin Lighty will be doing a live stream in the KSPR Weather Chat tonight beginning at 8 p.m. this evening.

www.kspr.com/weather/chat

Just noticed that TWC has our area now covered for "high risk" of severe weather and possible tornado outbreak for Monday afternoon/night.

Not to take away from the massive outbreak for tomorrow, but it is looking like Wednesday could be a repeat of what we are going to get tomorrow. The storm chasers will be busy this week!!!

I haven't even looked any further down the week...any specifics on what you know?

......startin' to get excited.... ....

Looks like Dr. Forbes' TOR-CON index for tomorrow is 8/10 for eastern KS if that's indication for us...

Significant tornado parameters look to be coming together tomorrow evening across the entire outlook area, the NWS has the area in an EXTREME risk for severe weather with mentioning of long track tornadoes. The ingredients do look to come together tomorrw, it's gonna be a DANGEROUS setup and everyone needs to stay alert and have your weather radios on! I will be in the field chasing tomorrow, I would like to know how many will be out tomorrow, maybe we can meet in Joplin. The cold front will not make it all the way through the Ozarks until sometime during the day Tuesday, then lift North again as a warm front Wednesday, the timing of all this is tricky but there could be another round Wednesday.

If you guys meet in Joplin (before the storms) let me know.
(Mindi has my number or you can email me at me@ p a i g enicole photography.com (it goes to my phone)


I'll be bored all day, til the storms get here...then I'll be near my storm room <3 hahaha.

Looks like the target for storm chasers will be NE OK and SE KS where the high risk area is. Storms will be dying down as they cross into Missouri where the cooler stable air is.

It all depends on how far north this warm front can get and if we can get instability (aka daytime heating) across our area. It won't take very much sunshine to get the atmosphere really primed here across SW MO. There has already been a noticeable shift of the overnight precip northeast of a Ft. Scott, KS to Springfield to Harrison, AR line.

If the instability isn't realized, then SW MO won't have nearly as much to worry about. Time to wait and see at this point.

I can't stand the wait man....

It is interesting to listen to the discussions, etc that the NWS is having right now. Not very often to hear them be this serious about a given weather situation.

Just arrived in Wichita, Ks about 10 minutes ago, currently there is a PDS tornado watch out for most of SE Kansas and Western Kansas, the probablities of that watch is a staggering greater than 90% for at least 1 tornado, and an 80% for an ef2 or stronger. Current model data still suggests that the environment will become favorable for the development of supercelluar storms which will likely begin rotating due to an intense amount of wind shear. The most current RUC model shows 0-3km shear values to be at impressive values at 1000 to 1100m2/s2! And 0-3km EHI values the highest I have seen in a very long time forecasted to go well over 12.0J/kg! This is a very DANGEROUS setup, and it looks like a limited tornado threat may exist for the SGF area after midnight. My thinking is that the cells that produce large tornadoes out here will dissapate before they make it to the SGF area, however small scale features may come into play that may enhance the tornado threat from about SGF points West of highway 65. After this episode of strong to severe thunderstorms I am currently watching what the models do with the system Wednesday.

Wouldn't the greatest amount of instability for the SGF area depend on how far north and east the warm front moves? I don't know the way it feels outside right now with the temps and cloud cover we've had all day unless there is a energy punch out of that warm front to get lift this area may not receive the strong storms like KS or OK.

I know it wasn't what the storm chasers were hoping for but thank goodness we were spared from some possibly terrible weather. Seemed those thunder boomers kinda lost steam on their trek east. Seems our cool and cloudy day didn't give them enough juice to pop. But sooner or later that will not be the case.