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Post  Stormman on Thu Apr 21, 2011 5:36 pm

Some details still to be hashed out regarding the severe threat for tomorrow afternoon and evening but it does appear that there will be a severe weather event across the region. At this hour a stationary front is in place to our South but with the approach of another short wave trough and the surface cyclone along with it, that front will surge NWD as a warm front tonight and will begin advecting deeper Gulf moisture as a triple point takes shape in ERN KS by tomorrow afternoon. As mentioned though there are questions surrounding the potential fro severe thunderstorms across the region;
1. Early morning convection along the warm front, meaning will this keep instability to a minimum.
2. The NAM indicates a slightly faster solution ultimately displacing the better ingredients for supercelluar activity to our South and off to our East.
3. The approaching trough is looking more positive tilt meaning winds will veer along the cold front as it takes over the dry line, leading me to believe that the severe threat will mainly be large hail and damaging wind gusts, however any cell that developes all by itself "discrete" as they are known will pose an elevated tornado threat given the amount of shear and instability forecasted by the NAM and SREF.
All in all it is possible if everything falls into place just right any discrete cell will have the better chance at producing a tornado, the mode though will transition into more of a line and bow echo line segments or LEWPs type structures where high winds and hail will be the more dominant severe weather threat by that point. With a very isolated tornado threat for our Southern counties after dark.
A MUCH more SIGNIFICANT severe weather threat looks possible Monday afternoon and evening, will have a forecast regarding that potential over the weekend.


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