Wednesday March 10th

Latest model guidance is showing the potential for surface based storms in the 18z through 0z time frame wed/thu. The GFS was showing at least 50F to mid 50s dew points. The NAM was also showing the possibility of 0-3km CAPE reaching as high as 1500j/kg, the 850mb jet out of the South at 25kts, then the 500mb winds out of the SW at 50kts. Given at least marginal moisture return and at least a 0-3km shear value around 200m^2/s^2 at least an isolated threat of tornadoes may actually be possible. It's a wait and see what happens type game at the moment.

Besides the 10th, Tuesday may support low topped sups. a very limited threat for tornadoes cannot be ruled out.

The storm prediction has the area for slight severe weather to the south of us in Arkansas on Wednesday. Just a 5% chance of severe weather for tomorrow and Wednesday in this area. Not the best of chances.

Looking at the latest SREF output showing a broad area of strong lift which will lead to high cape for this time of year. Between 18z and 00z Wed, lifetd indicies will approach -3 to -5 in the warm sector. SE KN and extreme Western MO looks to be the highest area of lift and instability, not only that but a narrow band of higher moisture. Strong 0-6km bulk shear AOA 40 to 60 kts out of the South West. Strong veering will begin to take place between the 18z/21z time frame with 0-3km shear values at or around 150m^2/s^2, then 0-3km shear values at or around 200m^2/s^2 to around 300m^2/s^2. Given the strong lift close to -5 and a somewhat bouyant airmass SBCAPE will begin to approach 500J/kg and increase by 18z through 21z wed. By 21z SBCAPE values should be close to 1000 to 1250J/kg. During this same time frame MLCAPE values will approach 1000J/kg, with the above ingredients and forecasted surface heating surface based sups are "possible" tomorrow evening through tomorrow night across the entire outlook area.

SPC has the region in a 10% threat for tornadoes and in a hatched area for large hail. This is the first real chance of severe weather we have had this year. Looks like the chances of someone in the area seeing severe weather is fairly high. Moisture return and instability are the question marks in my mind this morning. It is something to watch as the day unfolds. If the dewpoints can climb into the low to mid 50's we might have something to keep a close eye on.

Looks like dew points are on the rise. Storms (in my opinion) look to be the worst in our far southwestern counties. Any thoughts?

I can say TO ME it looks like its going to be a little bit worse to the south... I hope everyone will be safe ^_^