June 2 Severe Threat

For the rest of this evening the SPC has highlighted a moderate risk for extreme NW MO, most of Nebraska to a Des Moines, IA area.

Over the night tonight a short wave will prog East and the surface low will slowly track ENE with a trailing cold front, the front will stall and become quasi stationary then through the day tomorrow slowly approach the Ozarks from the West. Ahead of this front CAPE is forecasted to be 2500+J/kg.

Although there will be high instability, most of the upper energy will be North and East of the Ozarks, the 500mb winds will be out of the SW at or around 20kts.

0-3km shr will not be that impressive, but a small tornado threat cannot be ruled out, although the highest threat for tornadoes will likely be NE of the Ozarks. Hail, damaging straight line winds, and heavy rain appear to be the main threats. The upper main flow regime will transition into more of a NW flow later in the forecast, upper energy will be increasing as this happens, any wave along this main branch will have to be watched as it wouldn't take much to get a good severe event this time of year.

On a related note... it seems almost every day over the last two or three Shannon County has been under a SVR TSTORM WARNING... I wonder how much rain has piled up out there? Meanwhile, the Springfield metro and points west have remained dry.

Looks like some severe stuff may pop in the next couple of hours along an old outflow boundary.