Re: New winter weather

I see on Accuweather.com that they are predicting ice next week, starting on the evening of Jan. 13. Is this showing up on any of the models anywhere? Just asking everyone's viewpoint.

How long does this "bout" of icy weather last? Just curious since you said that this bout starts on the evening of Jan. 13.

Next week is going to moderate quite a bit! I don't see any ice next week just alot of rain! Ive been looking at the longrange charts we could have a very early spring! I don't see any major winter storms anytime soon. We need a break!

Dorothy, everything I have seen points to some light rain... it looks to be too warm for ice by then. I would say that nothing is for certain until it happens. I just don't see ice next week.

Godzilla I wasn't talking about a bout of icy weather. I was talking about a storm that brings us ice instead of snow. Thank you Gary for your insight. I know this site has been putting freezing rain and sleet in for that time frame off and on for at least a week. I guess we'll know more as it gets closer. I did notice, however, that Kevin has put a chance for more snow in the long-range forecast for us.

Just thought I would point out that the NWS is beginning to talk about precip for the end of next week. They also predict temps to only be in the mid to upper 30's for this time period. If this holds true, rain could easily turn into freezing rain or sleet, which would create some really bad results. Any other thoughts on this?

The GFS model has a storm system along the Gulf Coast by mid to late week next week. The trend this winter has been to trend these storms northwest with time. This is still about 7 days out and deserves to be watched. It still looks to be liquid to me at this point, but we will know more as the storm gets closer.

I am glad you are posting on here about the storm Dorothy.

Looks like its just going to be a cold rain. No need to worry about ice!

I noticed today that the NWS graphic forecast does have us in a mix of precip on Friday next week. They don't feel that the temps will be as high as the models are saying because of the snow pack to our northwest. I think this situation definitely needs to be watched.

Luckily with that system there isnt going to be much moisture to work with. It will starts as rain and end with a dusting of snow. Luckly nothing major!

I think this next weekends storm is one to watch. The models are not in agreement yet and the 18Z GFS run today brang the low more to the north and west. If this happens, we could be in for some more winter weather!

I know I have some what of a cold bias but I do not see anything that resembles the end of cold weather and an early spring. It looks to me like a week of normal temps then back down to below, However not as extreme as this has been but still colder than warmer. If you look at the long range CFS model it is showing a very COLD Feb for us. I know you all are seeing rain on the operational runs of the GFS this weekend but if you look at the Ensemble runs you see a good chance for a major snow storm this weekend.

Not saying this will for sure happen but it looks very possible that we could have a faily significant snow storm over the coming weekend. As usuall it will be a very close call in our area. I am betting as we get closer to the weekend the talk track for posssible accu snow will start. This system will have much more moisture with it than the last two. By the way I am not trashing anything that anyone of you are saying I am just saying I disagree and see it different. Time will tell

I agree with you snowman. I am hoping that our precip next weekend is snow and not ice as Accuweather.com is forecasting. I also agree that our winter is far from over. It's way too early in the season to say it's almost spring. February could bring us more winter weather.

I was reviewing the latest model data for this weekends storm. It appears to be an all rain event for us, we may get a dusting on the tail end with a few rap around flurries. The areas to the north like KC and rolla areas may get a little more snow. The problem with this system is its not going to have a whole lot of moisture to work with.

I still believe this weekend system is a watcher. This system has allot of precip to work with. I am not saying this is going to for sure be a major winter storm but if the right things happen and it comes far enough north smomeone in the area could get a HUGE dumping of HEAVY wet snow. I am talking more than 6 inches

The GFS ensembles and the Canadian Ensembles are both showing a major storm. It all comes down to the temps. All though we will be warmer we will not be blow torch warm. Models showing slightly above freezing during the entire event, However it does not take much evaporating cooling to drop below freezing for a heavy wet snow. This is one of those storms that if it does happen it will be a big surprise to many people.

Also, I still believe our warm up is going to be short lived. The NAO and the AO are both going to tank again. The 12Z Euro is showing some very brutal cold air coming again. The main difference it is showing is that this time it will be much more of a shallow Cold air mass. CAN YOU SAY ICE STORM...... This has the look of a major ice storm happening before the end of the month. Global CFS model still showing a very cold Feb for our and points east and south. I still believe this is going to be more of a winter than what we have been used to the last few years.

Anyways thats all I have for tonight

We are going to have highs in the 40's and 50's right up till the end of the month the only ice we are going to be seeing is in our freezers lol

Snowman... I do agree with your discussion of the longer range and colder air coming back to visit us. I am not sold on a weekend winter event. I have not seen a model that wants to latch onto this system and bring it far enough north. Without phasing, this thing looks to provide minimal impacts to the region's weather.

As always, I feel we should keep an eye on it. I just don't see it providing much in the way of winter weather at this time. A cold light rain looks more likely.

Gary, You could be absolutely right about this weekend. I know I am the outlier on my thinking. I also know allot would have to come together at the right times and so on for this to dump. All I am saying is this does have the potential to be a very heavy wet snow producer for someone close to our area. I always appreciate your thoughts Gary. The GFS is out to lunch on this system in my opinion..........driving this thing way way to for to the south. It may or may not get far enough north for us but It will definitely be much closer than the operational GFS is showing. Anyways I am sure I will come back on here later this evening and see that we are going to have an early spring and get your pools ready early this year.

A smart St louis Weatherman always says forecast the highs and not the lows....If you know where the High will set up you can figure out the path the low will take.

By the way I hope you are right weloveourhailey.......I would love an early spring but I dont think its going to happen this year. But I would love to see it

Ok, I guess i am officially off of my snow kick for this weekend. My beloved ensembles and Euro have all trended to warm for us. I believe Gary's ideas is looking correct. I am not saying it for sure cannot happen but the odds are starting to really stack against me. As far as this Jan thaw that is taking place, I may be totally wrong but I still believe this is going to be about a 10 day thaw and then back to winter. I know some are saying we may have several weeks of warm weather and we sure may. It just looks like to me that around the end of this month we are getting stormy and colder again. I personally have had enough winter and am ready for Summer but I dont think that will be the case. During this thaw the Arctic will be building in AK and it wont take much to get back down in the lower 48. Models sure showing Cali getting hammered with major flooding next week. You severe weather lovers (which I am not) Kevin sure does show an interesting setup on that in one of the other blogs.