Friday/Saturday April 30/May 1st

Thought I would start this thread as it does appear that another vigorous upper trough will sweep through the Plains late this week into the weekend. The models are not in agreement beyond day 4, thus the SPC has only warranted an outlook for day 4 for Thursday April 29th.

Our last storm was robbed of all the energy due to the convection that went up early in Arkansas, plus 0-3km shear was relatively weak to get any good supercell development in the ozarks. As it stands right now the 12z issuance of the NAM was showing STRONG 0-3km shear with this upcoming storm, but weak CAPE for our area. Still several more runs to go, let the threads begin!

So, my prediction of things getting bad for May 1st may materialize? I am curious how things are looking for Saturday. Are things coming together for a severe weather outbreak?

NWS has our area in a significant risk for severe storms during the day on Friday and the SPC mentions MODERATE risk in future outlooks.

Thanks stormman! I know my shoulder is hurting quite a bit so this front must be pretty dynamic!

Going over some model data this afternoon as the latest 12z NAM came out, confidence is increasing that from about SGF points East may see a few isolated tornadoes tomorrow into tomorrow evening as the cdfrnt goes quasi stationary West of the area. It's not looking as impressive as yesterdays runs but IMO if we realize more sunshine during the day tomorrow the tornado threat will increase. Target area if I had to choose one would likely be Joplin to Seneca line chase the storms as they push east through the evening. saturday raises a question in my mind. Thinking about setting up a target area in portions of Eastern Arkansas, likely East of the LZK area. V2 begins it's 2010 great tornado hunt on this day as well, I might follow them if they decide to chase these storms.

I don't think tomorrow will be anything too special for severe weather. The storms that do form will be very isolated, so not many people will get them. Plus there will be not much sunshine, so instability will be limited. Also I think the CAP will hold in place for much of the day. I just expect another windy day tomorrow with a very slight chance at a few lucky people getting some minor storms. I hope that I am wrong, but just still not the setup SW MO needs to get a good storm outbreak.

It's very complex because alot has to happen tomorrow, timing, cloud cover (affecting instability), how far North moist axis goes, shear available in the warm sector, I'm still chasing tomorrow. My target area as it stands now is gonna be a line from Seneca to Joplin to Lamar/Nevada line, and chase these storms as they push East.

Chasing in Northern Arkansas right now after meeting some other chasers in Joplin earlier this evening, tornado warning for Boone county.... we are headed that way. Tomorrows setup looks good as well, we have come up with a target area of Batesville,Ar. The ingredients look to come together better tomorrow in that direction.

Well good luck!! Once again a quick 10 minute storm that hits Springfield with heavy rain and some good lightning and thunder. Nothing in the way of wind/hail/tornado from where I was at. The sun is coming out and it looks like we are in the clear. Once again a wasted storm for the metro area.

weatherplus, why so negative. we got some pretty good stuff in nixa and a storm is a storm. we needed the rain so i don't considered it a wasted storm. we have to take what God sends us and be content with it.

Yes I agree it was a decent typical spring storm in the ozarks. I meant it was a waste as it was moving so fast. I think I read 55 mph. It was here and gone in no time! The rain that came down was so hard that I doubt if much of it soaked in the ground. Now there is a big tornado on the ground east of Gainesville!! I hope Stormman was able to catch up with it!!!

Hope it could be downloaded