Friday/Saturday, February 19/20 - Winter Storm?

Here we go again... The GFS has shown a pretty strong storm heading this direction for Friday the 19th.

Here is the 12z GFS Bufkit:



Welovehailey, you've been pretty good for the last couple of storms. What say you about this one?

Like I posted earlier that I think most of this storm will be rain. I don't think it cools off for snow till most of the precip will be over. Also with temps in the 40's on Wednesday and Thursday, any snow around the 32 degree will melt on contact just like this past forecasted big snow storm. Very interested in seeing what welovehailey thoughts are on this sytem.

weatherplus wrote:Like I posted earlier that I think most of this storm will be rain. I don't think it cools off for snow till most of the precip will be over. Also with temps in the 40's on Wednesday and Thursday, any snow around the 32 degree will melt on contact just like this past forecasted big snow storm. Very interested in seeing what welovehailey thoughts are on this sytem.

I quite agree. I think it will all melt on contact, whatever amount we get

As the days go by it will be interesting to see what the GFS does with this system.

The past couple of systems have ended up tracking farther south than the GFS showed this far out. IF that happens we'll be a little colder and have a better chance for snow accumulating.

We'll also be removed from the best moisture as well if that pans out and end up with lighter accumulations.

Either way, this is what makes winter weather so "fun" to forecast!

All of the opinions here are awesome but I think at least one of these future snowstorms is bound to get us.

To those of you predicting next weeks storm to be mostly rain, be careful to not count your chickens before they hatch.

Happy forecasting!

Storm is further north in the 0z run. Im going to have to agree with weatherplus looks like a rain event for us. But I wouldn't want to be in the "bullseye" yet anyhow.

The CFS has the -NAO pattern lasting from beginning to end right through late March

and

[img][/img]

Hopefully as winter progresses, the storm track will begin to move more north.
Get the storms out of Arkansas and put them in our area!

Here is the current day 5 map courtesy of NOAA:

[img][/img]

Next, here is the current day 6 map, also courtesy of NOAA:

[img][/img]

If this storm does take this forecasted track, then I think at least parts of the Ozarks are in trouble. Just my opinion.

Heck looking at the models runs now the Low as well as the freezing line is moving north. Looks like temps will be in the upper 30's with only light showers during the Friday/Saturday time frame. That is very odd as most of the low pressures have all went south of area to leave this area with very light precip.

[b]Here is the updated NOAA day 6 map:

[img][/img]

This map still shows the Low tracking south of the greater Springfield metro area.

Well the GFS has all but called a end to this possible weather event. Still temps are showing warm with upper 30s and low 40s for the upcoming Friday, Saturday, Sunday. Also showing very little moisture with the system.

Seems like the NWS is high on a possible big snow for Friday and Saturday. " GFS MODEL SOUNDING COMING IN SLIGHTLY COLDER ON TEMPERATURES OVER YESTERDAYS MODEL
RUN AND COMING MORE IN LINE WITH WHAT THE ECMWF WAS FORECASTING.
CURRENT THINKING IS PRECIP TO START AS A RAIN/SNOW MIX NOW
THURSDAY EVENING...TURNING TO ALL SNOW BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS A
COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE AREA. BOTH MODELS SHOWING
SIGNIFICANT QPFS WITH THE SYSTEM WITH GFS TARGETING THE MISSOURI
ARKANSAS STATE LINE AND ECMWF TARGETING CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
MISSOURI. WILL KEEP MENTION OF POSSIBLE SIGNIFICANT WINTER
ACCUMULATIONS GOING IN THE AFTERNOON HWO. WEEKEND LOOKS COLD AS
A SURFACE HIGH FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS DROPS INTO THE CWA."

About all of the other local stations are forecasting warm with rain and maybe little snow. Models will hopefully give us a clear cut sign into what will happen in the next 2 days.

This will be mostly a cold rain event the metro area will not get over an inch of snow.

Whew, that's a relief! I'm glad I don't have to worry about this winter event since Hailey says it won't do anything! Heck, I'm not even going to look at the weather the rest of this week...what's the need?

I agree with Hailey on the rain. Even if it does snow at some point on Friday, the ground will be to warm for it to stick, so don't expect any accumulations for the Springfield Metro area. Maybe light accumulations for the northern counties.

The model runs with this system keep flipping and flopping all over the place. Until we latch onto one constant solution, I wouldn't say anything is out of the question.

Ive been reviewing the latest model data, Springfield metro will have a cold rain event with a few stray flurries. All the long range charts show no winter storms coming our way!!

I'm glad I didnt learn to interpret model runs the same place Hailey did. I only have to go as far as Monday to find a potential snowstorm for SW MO. Don't fool yourself with only looking at the GFS with this upcoming pattern. It will not fare very well with this mulitple stream pattern we will be in over the next couple of weeks. It just cant handle these situations like the Euro, Canadian, UKMET, or even the NoGaps. 3 of the 4 models I just mentioned have a potential winter storm on them for us here in MO by early next week. So Hailey you better dig a little deeper and do a little more homework before making any more "no snow" forecasts. Not saying it will happen, just making the statement the ducks are lining up per some of the other global models. Everyone have a great day!

Stormsfury, where do you go to look at the models you watch. I look at Earl Barker's weathercaster, but the models don't always go out far enough. I would love another place to look at the models. Thanks.

http://grib2.com/gfs/CONUS_GFS0P5_SFC_ACCUM-SNOW_120HR.gif

I also noticed Nam is holding off precip till saturday and gfs is bringing us some snow? which one will be right? I kind of agree that it might be a cold rain, but it might be the bad kind of cold rain, the freezing kind.

Stormsfury wrote:I'm glad I didnt learn to interpret model runs the same place Hailey did. I only have to go as far as Monday to find a potential snowstorm for SW MO. Don't fool yourself with only looking at the GFS with this upcoming pattern. It will not fare very well with this mulitple stream pattern we will be in over the next couple of weeks. It just cant handle these situations like the Euro, Canadian, UKMET, or even the NoGaps. 3 of the 4 models I just mentioned have a potential winter storm on them for us here in MO by early next week. So Hailey you better dig a little deeper and do a little more homework before making any more "no snow" forecasts. Not saying it will happen, just making the statement the ducks are lining up per some of the other global models. Everyone have a great day!

I only use models as guidance. Anyone can look at models to make forecast but if you do that you could be wrong alot of the time. I look at teleconnections and other variables to make my forecasts. So far this winter I think its working.

Dorothy - Here are a few sites I use for these models:

Euro: Updates twice/day - 12z (completes around 12:30PM) and 0z (completes around 12:30AM). Go down to ECMWF US Current View. There are no precip maps with the Euro unless you subscribe to a pay site. You kinda have to go by 700 and 850 RH, SLP positions and tracks, and 850 temps to get an idea.

http://greatlakes.salsite.com/big_ECMWF_plymouth_page.html

Canadian/GGEM: Updates twice/day - 12z (completes around 11AM) and 0z (completes around 11PM). The 4-panel color charts are more user friendly than the black/white charts at the bottom.

http://www.weatheroffice.gc.ca/model_forecast/global_e.html

NoGaps or Navy model: This is an older model but is sometimes useful for detecting trends or storm tracks. I dont look at it very often for specifics. Defin not a high resolution model. This link also has other models on it you can explore like the Euro (ECMWF) and Canadian (CMC). The UKMET (UK) is on here as well but only goes out to 3 days. You will also find the GFS ensemble maps on there from 0z and 12z.

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/ewall.html

Hope you find these useful.

We could be getting quite a bit of rain out of this system! Im just glad its not going to be ice or snow it could have been really bad!

you may be right but alot can change. We will have to look at these next few model runs but it looks now if we may have dodged a bullet.

cardsfan wrote:you may be right but alot can change. We will have to look at these next few model runs but it looks now if we may have dodged a bullet.

Yeah I think I nailed another storm correctly. Its going to be a cold rain event for the metro. We will have to wait until next winter for anymore big snow event. I am working on my spring preview I will have ready soon for everyone!