Friday/Saturday, February 19/20 - Winter Storm?

Yeah, I don't think anyone cares anymore what you say. Your cockiness is annoying. I don't even check the forum as much because I get so annoyed by your comments.

Same here. I really used to enjoy the forum and seeing what everyone had to say but since hailey has started talking I am about sick of it and do not enjoy looking at it at all.

Well Hailey is just stating the fact that he is bold enough to make a prediction one week in advance, and usually get it right. There needs to be more people on this forum that shares their thoughts on upcoming weather and less time on bashing hailey. On Saturday Feb. 13th Craig posted a map saying the GFS was showing 12" of snow for this area for Friday and Saturday. Hailey and I each said it will be a mostly rain event 6 days in advance. I am not bragging my any means, but it looks like the prediction will hold true. The models always over do it and the trends were for warmer temps by the time the precip started. There may be some flurries mixed in this weekend, but it will be way to warm to stick. This is pretty much locked in and models won't change in a day or two to say we will get a winter storm. Looking at the next 2 weeks I only see rain events. Nothing at all in a significant winter storm. Today and tomorrow will make us realize that spring is very near!

Yes weatherplus did nail it too. Everyone I might be going to teach a class on long range forecasting if anyone is interested.

As of right now, I believe that the Friday/Saturday period looks like mostly a rain event. If you are a fan of winter weather, I would be more concerned about the Sunday/Monday time frame. The models are having horrible run-to-run consistency issues.

To add on to Gary's comment, I think next Thursday could also be a potential Winter Weather event. As of now, it looks like we'll have the cold air, it just matters where the storm ends up tracking.

With air temps in the mid to upper 30's and surface temps above freezing I can't see much winter weather in the Sunday/Monday time frame for SW MO. Now models are showing a pretty big snow for northern MO around I-70 where temps will be below freezing during that time, but down in southern MO it will still be too warm till maybe Sunday night, but by then most of the moisture will be to our East.

Weatherplus you nailed it. I don't see any significant winter weather in the next couple weeks. We dodged a bullet if it was below freezing for this next storm it could have been epic.

You know I'd just like to say it doesnt take a freakin genius to say we're not getting any big snow around here in late Feb/early March. I mean we get maybe an avg of 1 really big snow every yr or two around here mixed in with some smaller events. Our annual avg is only around 16" so yes climatologically speaking we should begin warming up soon and chances of snow are dropping. So, you know who you are on here, quit spouting out forecasts of no snow and trying to make yourself look like a forecaster extraordinaire because you're not. My 10-yr old could make the same call and be spot on about 2/3 of the time. Oh, BTW, I'm predicting we WILL see another moderate snowfall here before its all said and done. Enough said about this nonsense.

Stormsfury wrote:You know I'd just like to say it doesnt take a freakin genius to say we're not getting any big snow around here in late Feb/early March. I mean we get maybe an avg of 1 really big snow every yr or two around here mixed in with some smaller events. Our annual avg is only around 16" so yes climatologically speaking we should begin warming up soon and chances of snow are dropping. So, you know who you are on here, quit spouting out forecasts of no snow and trying to make yourself look like a forecaster extraordinaire because you're not. My 10-yr old could make the same call and be spot on about 2/3 of the time. Oh, BTW, I'm predicting we WILL see another moderate snowfall here before its all said and done. Enough said about this nonsense.

I get the feeling your talking about me not sure though. A couple weeks ago when EVERYONE was predicting 6+ inches of snow. I stood in the face of extreme criticism and stood firm on my prediction on a minor snow event. Nailed it! I have successfully predicted every storm this winter! I will compile some info for you guys on long range winter forecasting! Everyone this forum is NOT about me please focus on the weather at hand!!!!

I agree. This is a weather forum. This is for everyone around this area to share or predict the upcoming weather. I like to make my own forecast 5-6 days in advance and see if it holds true. Just like Craig and Kevin have said in the past that everyone is entitled to their own thoughts. I have yet once to see hailey write a hateful post toward another person or get mad at someone for making a prediction. It is all fun and games. Please everyone share your thoughts on weather and we will all get along!

Hello, been following the forum and decided would add my thoughts. Upcoming storm appears to warm for the first wave, and second wave I believe ground temps may be to warm for accum. but we still may see some wintry type weather, just my opinion, will have to wait and see. As for hailey, congrats on getting a few storms right, but don't start talking yourself up, I believe after the frigid beginning to january you said that the cold was over and that spring was right around the corner, hmmm. guest I missed spring then. The storm on the 28th started out being forcasted by you as an epic ice storm, then maybe snow, then nothing, then maybe an inch, and at last I think we ended up with around six inches. Oh and you started a thread saying that February was going to be nice and toasty, what exactly happened to that, not saying your always wrong, just saying you are not always right like you have been saying recently. Just thought I would take you off the ego trip you was on and bring you back to reality. So we dont need know lessons on long range forcasting from you by looking at your track record. Thanks and happy forecasting!

Weloveourhailey its amussing to me that you put some much time into creating two accounts making it appear as if "weatherplus" is another user who just happens to post after defending your nonsense. I have seen you posting on another weather forum for the last several months and it's ironic here is a post you made today regarding this same system. Just google weloveourhailey and you can see everything hes posted on another weather site that starts with A.

weloveourhailey

Today, 01:52 PM Post #303
I havent been watching this storm. How does it look for Springfield Mo?






I havent been watching this storm. How does it look for Springfield Mo?

Can we please please please get back on topic?

We can get back on track right after I say this...RYAN...THAT IS CLASSIC!!! Funniest thing I have ever seen in my life! It is definitely the same person.

Just thought I would let you know I just read the comments made on the other blog. Ryan, you hit it on the head. Hailey acts like he's really stupid on the other weather page, but acts like an expert here. I don't think I will be sitting in on any lessons on long-range forecasting unless Kevin or Craig are teaching them.

Funny guys. I had that coming. I thought I would try to sound smart on here about weather. No more stupid comments from me. Everyone im sorry. By the way weatherplus isnt me.

I just thought a quick note on being nice was necessary. I used to visit and comment on the weather blog. It was a lot of fun, and very educational. Unfortunatley, people started attacking each other, and before long, the commenting on the weather blog was gone.
My point is that everyone is entitled to their opinion, and no one person has been more right than the others. I can gurantee you that if we keep bickering, we will lose this forum also, and that would really stink with storm season coming. So let's all be nice, if you have an opinion, share it, if you don't agree you can counter. But please leave the personal attacks out of this. Remember we are all amateurs, and that this is just for fun anyway.

Does anyone have thoughts on this upcoming storm. I heard we could get some freezing rain?

Its going to be interesting to see how far south the cold gets.

Heres is the NWS thoughts on the system. Hopefully the colder air comes farther south than they think.



AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
554 PM CST THU FEB 18 2010



...UPDATE TO AVIATION...



.DISCUSSION...



FORECAST CHALLENGES CONTINUE TO BE PRECIP TIMING AND TYPE OVER THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS TWO STORM SYSTEMS MOVE THROUGH THE AREA.


SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)...

CURRENTLY...VERY DRY AIR IN PLACE ONCE AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON AS REPORTS
FROM AREA ASOS/AWOS STATIONS INDICATING HUMIDITIES IN THE UPPER
TEENS AND LOWER 20S. THE 12Z SGF SOUNDING WAS QUITE DRY AS
WELL...WITH PWATS OF .12 INCHES. BELIEVE THIS DRY AIR WILL HAVE AN
IMPACT ON PRECIP ONSET LATER TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE OVER LOUISIANA HAS EFFECTIVELY CUT OFF ANY GULF MOISTURE
RETURN SO FAR. DO NOT SEE ANY DEWPOINTS HIGHER THAN THE MID 20S
UNTIL SOUTHERN TEXAS. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE BEGINNING TO DEVELOP
OVER EASTERN COLORADO THIS AFTERNOON.


FOR TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...WITH NO GULF MOISTURE TO WORK WITH...THIS LOW
WILL HAVE TO BRING ITS OWN MOISTURE WHICH I THINK WILL BE USED UP
IN SATURATING THIS DRY AIR ALREADY IN PLACE. WRF SURFACE DEWPOINT
PROG FINALLY BRINGS LOW 40S INTO THE AREA BY EARLY AFTERNOON
FRIDAY. BEST ISENTROPIC LIFT LOOKS TO OCCUR AFTER 15Z FRIDAY. EVEN
THE 12Z ECMWF IS SLOWING DOWN ONSET OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS OUR
WESTERN COUNTIES UNTIL LATE FRIDAY MORNING. FOR ALL THESE
REASONS...HAVE OPTED TO DELAY PRECIP ONSET UNTIL AFTER SUNRISE
FRIDAY ACROSS OUR WESTERN ZONES AND PROBABLY MORE LIKE AFTERNOON
FOR OUR CENTRAL AND EASTERN ZONES. WHICH IS A GOOD THING AS
TEMPERATURES BY LATE MORNING SHOULD BE WELL ABOVE FREEZING...SO
ALL PRECIP SHOULD FALL AS LIQUID.


WARM FRONT PUSHES WELL NORTH INTO NORTHERN MISSOURI FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO WARM THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON WELL ABOVE FREEZING. SO THINK PRECIP DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING SHOULD REMAIN LIQUID. COLD FRONT
PUSHES INTO WESTERN MISSOURI BY THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. WHATEVER
LEFT OVER MOISTURE SHOULD CHANGE OVER TO A RAIN/SNOW MIX SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. LITTLE TO NO SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE
EXPECTED. FRONT HANGS UP OVER NORTHERN ARKANSAS FRIDAY EVENING
INTO SATURDAY AS A SECONDARY LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM BEGINS TO DEVELOP
OVER THE TEXAS PANHANDLE. THIS ONE LOOKS TO MOVE ALONG THE
STATIONARY FRONT AND WILL IMPACT THE AREA SUNDAY.


CLAYCOMB

LONG TERM (SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...


SUBTROPICAL JET WILL REMAIN ACTIVE IN THE PERIOD WITH ANOTHER
PACIFIC SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS BY
LATE IN THE WEEKEND. MODELS HAVE BEEN STRUGGLING MUCH OF THE WEEK
WITH STRENGTH...SPEED AND PLACEMENT OF KEY FEATURES WITH THIS SYSTEM
AS IT AFFECTS THE MISSOURI OZARKS AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS. MODELS ARE
STARTING TO COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THIS SYSTEM WITH THE GFS
SLIGHTLY FASTER WITH LOW. BOTH ECMWF AND GFS BRING LOW ACROSS
SOUTHERN MISSOURI WITH A WARM NOSE OF AIR SETTING UP AS 850 LOW
TRACK DRAWS WARMER AIR INTO THE REGION ALOFT. WILL BE A SHARP
TEMPERATURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE AREA WITH SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE
CWA LIKELY TO SEE 40S ON SUNDAY AND NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE CWA
PROBABLY REMAINING AT FREEZING OR BELOW. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE
SHOWING A BRIEF PERIOD OF POTENTIAL FREEZING RAIN ACROSS NORTHERN
HALF OF CWA BEFORE CHANGING OVER TO SNOW LATER IN THE DAY. MUCH OF
THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA SHOULD REMAIN AS RAINFALL WITH
TEMPERATURES REMAINING ABOVE FREEZING...WITH MOST LOCATIONS CHANGING
OVER TO ALL SNOW BY SUNDAY NIGHT. CANADIAN AIR MASS WILL MOVE INTO
THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AS LOW LIFTS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AND GREAT
LAKES REGION. COLDER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED INTO THE MIDDLE
PORTION OF NEXT WEEK.