Monday/Tuesday May 10/11

Overall a successful chase, even though I didn't get to see a tornado I got to see some amazing supercells near Coffeyville, Ks. Storm speeds was incredible and we didn't have time to make it to the cells in Oklahoma that proved to be deadly tornado producing beasts. I should have followed my gut instinct and went ahead and play the Henryetta, Ok area. Oh well... on the way back home on I-44 the NWS is SGF issued a tornado warning for Eastern Jasper, Northern Lawrence and Dade counties, as was the case with all the storms the speed on that cell was too fast to keep up with traveling East at 65mph. This evenings forecast is interesting as SBCAPE is at 2500J/kg, 0-3km shr right around 200 to 250m2/s2 over the SGF area and just to the NW 300 to 350m2/s2. There is currently a short wave out West that will prog East thru tonight, given that there is a boundary near by and CAPE approaching 3000J/kg, there is an isolated tornado threat. Then tomorrow yet another short wave will prog East and send a cdfrnt our way giving us a better chance for some tornadic development, however IMO the greatest tornado threat would be along the I-70 corridor,

Looks to be primarily a large hail and high wind potential this evening. Storms didn't develop this afternoon because the cap held.

The SPC has just highlighted our area in an MD concerning a severe potential, a watch is possible. Current soundings suggest that development could happen and the rotating updrafts are likely. The NWS in SGF "might issue a severe t strm watch in the next few hours or so.

I was just coming to post that exact information. Radar trends are encouraging, but we aren't quite there yet...

Looking at the latest radar data looks like some good size cells north of Coffeyville. I didn't see much to the SW towards OK and just showers in Northern Arkansas for now this was about 2130 hrs.

Looks like a line of boomer shaping up north of Joplin.

Looking at current radar, looks like development is taking place West of SGF heading NW. The storm near Joplin is a little disorganized but needs to be monitored.