Thursday, January 28th

Who's up for some snow next week?

It's still early but it looks like the cold air is coming back and maybe enough moisture for some of that fun, fluffy, goodness.

What's everyone think/want?

I could use a little snow looks like the heaviest band will be to our south. Looks like this has been the pattern the last couple weeks.

I like snow! So far the stuff that falls in these parts is very enjoyable not like the hell I moved away from LOL!

Hey Craig! I have a question for ya. Is there any chance that this storm could take a southern route like the models are showing and then turn to the north towards St. Louis so we get on the backside of the storm and get more snow?!

Since I failed miserably with this Saturdays wx, I'm not gonna post anything about this upcoming event. Lets just say it looks interesting, looks that the event will start as rain then turn to snow. Thats all I'm gonna say cause I'm not jinxing this one.LOL:)

Is it just me or is this looking like an ice storm for the I44 corridor for next week?

HEY DONT FEEL BAD STORMMAN WE CANT GET IT RIGHT EVERYTIME IF WE HAD INSTABILITY IT WOULD BE RUFF BUT NOT THIS TIME LOL!!!I THOUGHT THE SAME AS YOU BUT ONE THING WE HAVE GOT RIGHT THE COLD AIR IS COMING!!!ONE THING IM CONCERNED ABOUT IS THE GFS IS SHOWING THE STORM A LITTLE FARTHER NORTH THE EUROPEAN MODEL IS STILL SOUTH SO ITS A GUESS STILL RIGHT NOW OF COURSE I LIVE HERE IN ARKANSAS SOUTH OF HARRISON BUT IF IT DOES GO MORE NORTH I WOULD SAY YOU GUYS IN MISSOURI MAY HAVE TO WATCH OUT FOR ICE AS ILOVEMYHAILY SAID IT WOULD LEAD TO ICE BUT WE KNOW THE ARE SEVERAL MODEL RUNS TO GO

SKYWARN82

I turn 21 on that day by the way, I hope we get hammered by a snowstorm. Your right though SKYWARN82 if we could just get some instability and higher dew points this would have been a different scenario. Bleh lets focus now on Thursday.

Next week continues to look interesting for the folks in MO. A nice snowstorm, and maybe even ice, showing up on the 0z GFS tonite.

Boy was I wrong about winter being over. We could very well have an epic ice storm somewhere in SW missouri next week! Stayed tuned

HAPPY BIRTHDAY STORMMAN I HAVE WOKE UP THIS MORNING TO A SLIGHT RISK AREA HERE IN ARKANSAS THIS MORNING SO MAYBE WILL GET SOMETHING DOWN HERE ALSO I KNOW WE HAVE A SEVERAL MORE MODEL RUNS BUT IM REALLY STARTING TO GET WORRIED THAT SOMEONE IS ABOUT TO GET HAMMERED BY A MAJOR ICE STORM HERE IN ARKANSAS OR IN MISSOURI IS YET TO BE DETERMINED BUT IT SOEMTHING THAT EVERYONE NEEDS TO PAY ATTENTION TO THE EUROPEAN IS STILL FARTHER SOUTH WITH ITS TRACK AND THE GFS HAS WENT SOUTH AGAIN WHICH WOULD PUT SOUTHERN MISSOURI AND PARTS OF NORTHERN ARKNASAS IN ITS EYES BUT ALSO IT LOOKS TO BE A SHALLOW ARTIC AIRMASS WHICH WE KNOW MODELS DONT HANDLE WILL ALL THE TIME ALSO THIS MORNIG THE EURO MODEL IS SHOWING A NEGATIVE AO INDEX SO GET READY THE COLD FOR FEBUARY IS COMING!!!!
SKYWARN82

Everyone keep an eye on next weeks storm! This could be a very major ice storm event! Im going today to stock up on supplies!! Stay tuned to KSPR this week!

I think words like "EPIC" in relation to any weather five days or more out is a bit hasty. That being said, it does look like we have wintry weather in our forecast Wednesday PM and beyond. Temperature profiles are going to play a key role in whether this is snow, frz rain, or rain. Model trends are what we have to watch at this point.

Gary hit the nail on the head there. We have to see how the models trend from here on out. I'm not one to toot my own horn, because that will ALWAYS bite you in the rear if you do, but today's storm was a classic example. The GFS generally gets too excited with the first couple of "spring" like storms. That doesn't mean it can't happen and I could have just as easily have been wrong. Patience is the key with these storms.

The same is to be said about the Wed-Thu storm. This one is going to be one of those tight gradient type of storms I'm afraid. Some will get ice, some will get snow, some will get rain. It certainly does not look to be a clear-cut all snow or ice event. There certainly is the risk of accumulating ice and the thermal profiles will be the key.

I'm not going to step out on a limb just yet as I'm a big boy and that limb, heck the entire tree, may come crashing down on me.

I will say we all need to stay tuned and watch this one closely over the next several days.

Craig

Thanks for the updates everyone. Obviously this a storm system that we need to watch for now. It will be fun watching all the things that change over the next few days with the forecast. Winter is so much fun!

Latest 00Z GFS now shows the system going just a little bit further South, taking with it most if not all the precip. Just goes to show that it's still too far out, but the way things look at least at the moment that the Ozarks will be North of "ALL" the precip. Things can change stay tuned to KSPR weather team as we get closer to those dates.

I sure hope that system stays far south, I really don't want to experience another ice storm...makes tornadoes look welcoming. Trying to sell a house, don't need any damage!

The odds of this thing going way south are pretty low IMO. Most other models along with the ensembles show a direct hit over all of this region as of last night's runs. Gonna be an interesting week ahead with a mixed bag of all precip types across the region.

Latest 12Z GFS is in and is currently showing this system way too far South of the Ozarks. However it does appear that Northern Arkansas may see an ice/snow event. Way things look at the moment SGF will see flurries at best.

YEA STORMMAN I WAS WAITING FOR GFS TO COME OUT AND MAN THAT 12Z DOESNT SHOW MUCH MERCY ON ME HERE IN ARKANSAS IT LOOKS RUFF DOWN HERE I WOULD SAY SPRINGFILED WILL SEE SOME ACCUMALTIONS BUT IT WILL BE A SHARP CUT OFF TO THE NORTH OF THERE BUT AS FAR AS HERE WERE I LIVE IN ARKANSAS IT LOOKS LIKE HAMMER TIME AND I DREAD IT!!!! SKYWARN82

We are still 4 days out and I'm sure the operational GFS will change again. Most of all the other models are bringing the storm more to the north. I guess we'll just have to wait and see what happens. The NAM will start to take a hold on this storm in the next day. I'm interested to see what it will show!

The NWS says they aren't going with the operational GFS with this new storm. They are still going with the Euro and the GFS, saying that a significant winter storm looks to hit this area Wednesday-Friday. The current info from NWS is saying that they don't think the operational GFS is handling the storm very well and that's why they are going with the other models. They are saying that they believe there will be a line across Springfield to Salem, and north of the line with get freezing rain, sleet and snow Wednesday night transitioning to all snow Thursday. South of the line will get freezing rain and sleet until Thursday evening and then transitioning to all snow. I think this storm is definitely worth watching.

THE GFS IS STARTING TO GET IN LINE WITH THE EURO MODEL GFS WAS TO FAR NORTH BUT HAS SINCE SLOWED DOWN AND MOVED SOUTH AND IS PRETTY CLOSE TO THE EURO MODEL THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS HAVE BEEN DOING VERY GOOD WITH THIS SYSTEM AND THE NWS IS ALSO FOLLOWING IT THE STORM LOOKS TO BE RUFF AT THIS TIME BUT THE WORST LOOKS TO HIT HERE WERE I LIVE IN ARKANSAS SPRINGFIELD WILL SEE SNOW WITH A SHARP CUT OFF TO THE NORTH OF THERE BUT LIKE I SAID YESTERDAY THERE IS A LOT OF MODEL RUNS LEFT TO GO!!!

SKYWARN82

Thanks skywarn im glad springfield isnt going to see the ice!!! I can live with snow

I certainly wouldn't bite off on the operational GFS at this point. Most storms in our region this winter have had the GFS showing a more southern path only to verify further north and west. This one is far from being consensus.