Thursday, January 28th

Latest 0Z NAM is in, not much has changed from the 18Z run. I still think the NAM may be overdoing it just a little, but I don't know. The upper air networks are getting ahold of this system, it's going to be interesting to see what the 0Z GFS is saying tonight. My confidence is increasing slightly with this storm, for now I'm going with 5 to 9" of the white stuff here in the metro area points South. Folks living from a line from just South of Joplin to West Plains area can expect in my opinion 9 to 14" of the white stuff. I'm stoked I get a significant winter storm for my 21st bday!

Ok i have heard people talk about if there is a ring around the moon you are supposed to get a big snow? If this is true has anyone noticed the HUGE ring around the moon tonight?

http://www.theweatherprediction.com/wxlore/e/

Straight from one of my college professor's website:

WEATHER FOLKLORE: "A ring around the sun or moon, means rain or snow coming soon"

The ring around the sun or moon is caused by ice crystals within thin cirrus clouds. The refraction causes light to shine into a ring. Cirrus clouds are generally the first layer of clouds that are seen as a storm system approaches.

0Z GFS model run.

Shifting heavy snow through Springfield, with sleet cutting down on amounts near MO and AR border.

Good morning. Once again, the Winter Storm Watch expands with an additional row of counties added to the north. Tulsa has gone ahead and issued the Winter Storm Warning for their northern counties.

Here is what the Tulsa weather service office is forecasting for their area in terms of snow:

Well looks like the track of the Low has shifted to the north a bit. I am sure that is why they keep adding counties to the north under the winter storm watch. I would say by later this afternoon it will be a warning. The NAM model keeps sticking with around 14" of snow around Springfield and GFS 10-12". Due to models keeping the same trend for the past 36 hours, this may just be a monster of a system. It seems like everytime I think it is going to be big, then nothing much happens. So I am just going to think on the low end of amounts and hopefully be surprised with a nice 8-10" snow here in the metro area.

What does everyone make of the GFS and NAM slightly cutting down on the snow totals? Do you think it might be simply lowering them or that it is picking up on some more sleet mixed in with the snow?

Just to let you all know...

In between working on a story for tonight's newscasts from Mountain Home, I am rendering a special Hi-Res FutureCast to get us a different model forecast on the storm. Like the GFS and NAM today, it has shifted the heavy snow band a little farther north. As soon as it completes I'll post it here and on the KSPR Blog for you all.

Also, around 1pm, the NWS will be broadcasting a special discussion on NOAA Weather Radio. Turn your radio on for this special broadcast. We'll be listening to it here and if anything major comes from it, we'll let you know.

Craig

I listened to the live forecast from NWS. It was just pretty much saying what they put in the updated Hazardous Weather Statement on the site. I did notice they are bringing the snow totals down a bit. This morning it was 6-10 inches for areas from SOUTH OF A GIRARD KANSAS TO BOLIVAR TO SALEM MISSOURI LINE...and now they are saying 5-9 inches. Not much of a change, but I think this will continue to the point of 4-7 inches for totals. All models are starting to slightly downplay this system as the low is finally coming onshore.

Models are struggling for consistency right now but we are close to getting into a more reliable range. I personally think this ends up being a bit stronger than what todays models are showing. My only concern is that many times models do a bad job of handling warm air aloft and tend to underestimate the strength of it - leading to more ice than snow. I could see that cutting totals down.

Hoping for all snow and no nasty ice! I have been so busy all week I haven't even looked at a model run. Glad I didn't sell my cross country skis before moving out here lol!!!

0z NAM

Looks like the heavier stuff is pushing more east? Looks like Springfield Metro area will get the snow not matter what. Models seem to be consistent at least for that

As I am sure you are aware, a WINTER STORM WARNING is now in effect from 6 pm tonight until 6 pm Friday.

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
652 AM CST THU JAN 28 2010

...WINTER STORM WARNING FOR HEAVY SNOW ACROSS PORTIONS OF
SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND THE MISSOURI OZARKS THIS EVENING INTO
FRIDAY...

.A STORM SYSTEM ORGANIZING OVER THE SOUTHWEST UNITED STATES WILL
TRACK INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON AND ACROSS ARKANSAS
FRIDAY. A COLD CANADIAN AIRMASS WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION AHEAD
OF THIS SYSTEM...SETTING THE STAGE FOR ACCUMULATING WINTRY
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE MISSOURI OZARKS AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

LIGHT PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN ACROSS EXTREME SOUTHWEST
MISSOURI AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS LATE THIS AFTERNOON...AND
OVERSPREAD THE REMAINDER OF THE MISSOURI OZARKS TONIGHT INTO
FRIDAY WHILE INCREASING IN INTENSITY. PRECIPITATION MAY INITIALLY
BEGIN AS FREEZING DRIZZLE OR LIGHT SLEET LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING...WITH A CHANGE OVER TO SLEET AND SNOW THURSDAY
NIGHT. ALL SNOW IS EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW AND SLEET ARE LIKELY ACROSS
SOUTHERN MISSOURI...WITH THE BEST CHANCES FOR ACCUMULATING SLEET
SOUTH OF THE HIGHWAY 60 CORRIDOR. MAINLY SNOW IS EXPECTED NORTH
OF HIGHWAY 60. MINOR ICE ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS
EXTREME SOUTHERN MISSOURI NEAR THE OKLAHOMA AND ARKANSAS BORDERS.

EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT...HIGHWAY DEPARTMENTS...MEDIA...AND THOSE
WITH TRAVEL PLANS ARE ENCOURAGED TO CLOSELY MONITOR THE LATEST
FORECAST AND STATEMENTS FROM YOUR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN
SPRINGFIELD MISSOURI.

KSZ097-101-MOZ077-082-088>098-101>106-282100-
/O.CON.KSGF.WS.W.0001.100129T0000Z-100130T0000Z/
CRAWFORD-CHEROKEE-BARTON-TEXAS-JASPER-DADE-GREENE-WEBSTER-WRIGHT-
NEWTON-LAWRENCE-CHRISTIAN-DOUGLAS-HOWELL-SHANNON-MCDONALD-BARRY-
STONE-TANEY-OZARK-OREGON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...PITTSBURG...BAXTER SPRINGS...COLUMBUS...
LAMAR...HOUSTON...CABOOL...JOPLIN...CARTHAGE...GREENFIELD...
SPRINGFIELD...MARSHFIELD...ROGERSVILLE...MOUNTAIN GROVE...
MANSFIELD...NEOSHO...AURORA...MOUNT VERNON...NIXA...OZARK...AVA...
WEST PLAINS...WINONA...EMINENCE...ANDERSON...PINEVILLE...MONETT...
CASSVILLE...KIMBERLING CITY...GALENA...BRANSON...FORSYTH...
GAINESVILLE...THEODOSIA...THAYER...ALTON
652 AM CST THU JAN 28 2010

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING
TO 6 PM CST FRIDAY...

A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR HEAVY SNOW IN ADDITION TO LIGHT SLEET
AND FREEZING RAIN REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6
PM CST FRIDAY.

* TIMING AND AREAS AFFECTED...LIGHT FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP EARLY THIS EVENING ACROSS EXTREME SOUTHEAST
KANSAS AND SOUTHERN MISSOURI...GENERALLY SOUTH OF A LINE FROM
COLUMBUS KANSAS...TO NIXA...TO WEST PLAINS MISSOURI...BEFORE
CHANGING OVER SNOW BY MIDNIGHT.

SNOW WILL SPREAD INTO THE REMAINDER OF THE MISSOURI OZARKS AND
SOUTHEAST KANSAS DURING THE MID TO LATE EVENING. THE SNOW MAY BE
PRECEDED BY A PERIOD OF SLEET.

MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW IS EXPECTED AFTER MIDNIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING BEFORE DECREASING IN INTENSITY FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

* SNOW AND SLEET ACCUMULATIONS...COMBINED SNOW AND SLEET ACCUMULATIONS
OF 5 TO 8 INCHES ARE EXPECTED BY FRIDAY EVENING.

THE SNOW MAY BE PRECEDED BY A PERIOD OF SLEET ESPECIALLY SOUTH
OF A LINE FROM COLUMBUS KANSAS...TO NIXA...TO WEST PLAINS
MISSOURI. MINOR SLEET ACCUMULATIONS ARE POSSIBLE.

* ICE ACCUMULATION...ONLY MINOR ICE ACCUMULATIONS NEAR ONE TENTH OF
AN INCH OR LESS ARE EXPECTED SOUTH OF A LINE FROM COLUMBUS
KANSAS...TO NIXA...TO WEST PLAINS.

* WINDS AND VISIBILITY...GUSTY NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS UP TO 25
MPH WILL RESULT IN SOME BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW TONIGHT INTO
FRIDAY.

* IMPACTS...TRAVEL WILL BECOME TREACHEROUS THIS EVENING ACROSS EXTREME
SOUTHWEST MISSOURI AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS...AND THE ENTIRE AREA
OVERNIGHT. MISSOURI HIGHWAYS 60 AND 160...AND THE INTERSTATE 44
CORRIDOR WILL BE IMPACTED BY THIS STORM.

THIS WINTER STORM WILL IMPACT SURROUNDING AREAS OF NORTHEAST
OKLAHOMA AND NORTHERN ARKANSAS. VERY COLD TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO
EXPECTED BEHIND THE STORM SYSTEM THIS WEEKEND...WITH OVERNIGHT
LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER STORM WARNING MEANS SEVERE WINTER WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED. SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF SNOW ARE FORECAST THAT WILL MAKE
TRAVEL DANGEROUS. ONLY TRAVEL IN AN EMERGENCY. IF YOU MUST
TRAVEL...CONSIDER TAKING A WINTER STORM KIT ALONG WITH YOU.

Thank you Gary!

I thought I would show this to see how big an impact this storm has. Look at all the places already in a winter storm warning from the NWS. It is the parts of the region that are in light pink.

I would like to hear some people's thoughts on this storm. I thought the GFS and NAM last night were looking fairly promising for snow. However, today, even before the next model runs, it seems like everyone is kind of scaling back on it all. What do you guys think?

Yeah I think this storm won't be as bad as well all think. I have studied so many past winter weather events where it looks promising for a big snow, and then once it starts, we get maybe 1/2 of what was forecasted. The reasons I think this snow won't be too bad. The low level jet is not near as strong with the new models so that will cut down on the very heavy snow. I think at best a moderate snow be coming down like 1/2 inch to 3/4 inch a hour for just a select few hours. Also if there are some big thunderstorms that form down in east Texas tonight, that will steal alot of the moisture from our snow storm. I have also seen dry slots form over SW MO during snow storms to the point we don't get much snow. The NWS has went from predicting 6-10 inches yesterday, down to 5-8 inches today. I bet the people up north are laughing at us for making such a big deal with 5-8 inches. Guess we just not used to it as much. I really would love a big snow, but just think 4-5 inches best around Springfield with maybe 7-8 inches down around the state line. Would like to read other thoughts.

Whats with the 12Z runs of NAM and GFS increasing the snow totals more to the north? The NWS cut down on total snow amounts. Any thoughts?

I wouldn't buy into those models. Up north suppose to get the least amount of snow. NWS once again is cutting down the totals. 4-8 inches now predicted. Just as I figured. Snow won't even start till probably 8-10 pm tonight as the atmosphere is extremely dry. Kevin or Craig are you all thinking about lowering the totals too??

weatherplus, not to be too much of a pro-Kevin guy, but why would Kevin change his forecast? He has continually downplayed models and kept to the basic 6-8 inch forecast for springfield and the surrounding area, and has always stressed the slow movement of the system....you spent a lot of time on your own to run and/or interpret various models to come up with 4-8 inches....hmmm, I believe Kevin's continuos 6-8 is within your supposed iconoclastic 4-8. Surprisingly, Kevin has broken the mold of overhyping the weather event and has continued saying the system is very dynamic, even for difficult, if not impossible, to predict snowfall amount winter systems. Again I love to check the models , nws, various meteorologists, but snowfall in this area is a crap shoot and thus far Kevin has been winning against the house.

Amen JSowers77!!!

NWS just "increased" snow amounts for springfield. to get closer to the models?:

snow event to begin 7pm thurs.-7pm Fri
90-100% chance for precipitation
~7.5-7.9 inches o' snow

of course could change but again the ol' 6-8 inches looks pretty dead on from 48 hours ago until the very precipice of the event

jsowers77, KSPR has came down a bit. Looking at past blogs it was 6-12", then 6-10", now 6-8". I was just curious if there was maybe some models picking up on more sleet or less moisture that would cause totals to go down. I am only able to look at the basic model. It just seemed that several different weather sites were lowering totals and wasn't for sure why. I think all of the KSPR met's are doing a great job. I am just making my predictions for all fun and games. Hardly ever right.... lol. I am sure there will be a new blog update soon with the latest detailed information.

I have noticed that there has been a sizable disparity in the NAM and GFS models as far as the snowfall totals are concerned. I was just wondering why they seem to base the official snowfall predictions more on the GFS than the NAM? I am new to actually getting down and looking at models so I was thinking that maybe the NAM just overdoes it from time to time. I guess I'm just confused when I look at the NAM and see 12-14 and 16-18 inch predictions but the official predictions are only calling for around 7 inches or so. Is this model really that far off?

weatherplus, I totally understand. There are so many possible permutations, it is fun to check out the numbers/maps....I feel it is akin to when I go to Vegas and try to handicap the NCAA BBall tournament each year. But I just feel that the odd/intriguing story is how the forecast has pretty much been right on for so long. Not to knock any meteorologist, but winter systems+snow forecasting+ozarks=absolute chaos. So it is quite something, thus far, that kevin has been right on.