Thursday, January 28th

Here is the 18z GFS snowfall forecast



Here is the official KSPR forecast:

you've got to be kidding me....The Christmas supposed snow saddened me....The new year's snow came out of nowhere.....and now...a huge snow system is hitting every single area it passes by except the springfield metro area!!! I didn't get my hopes up, but a call of 8-10 1 hour before the system seems pretty convincing. But now who nows maybe NOTHING....I am from Northern Illinois and have always had a partially/total white winter....I can understand no much snow, or no snow, but to set up something and take it away really makes me depressed...I currently HATE the Ozarks...What the hell?

Wait till tomorrow at this time and see how much snow their is, you are throwing in the towel way to early jsowers. The air is still dry here but it will be snowing soon, we have a few flakes starting to fall in crocker.

Looks like my forecast from this morning is coming true. I called the dry slot. Kevin lowered totals to 3-6 inches now. I thought about 4-5 inches all along for Springfield. It will be fun to see how all this plays out.

kz1899 I hope you are correct...but this area is beating the hope out of me. I just wish it would be like back home when they say something it pretty much happens...the fact that snow is hard to come by increases my longing and when I am basically promised (1-2 hours before the system hits) something akin to back north I have no option but to get caught into a phenomenon that could help recapture a bit of home. But alas the last three times (this time included) I have my hopes crushed. I saw the outrageous predictions and said, no, it will be a bit less...and kevin agreed. I felt secure. Now there is a hole over Springfield and a hole in my heart. I like the people, my job, and the landscape, but I hate this (I want to say so many expletives, but it is a family website) place's weather. I hate the summer and its heat, I long for nice cold snowy winter days. I know you don't get many of 'em here but when they are so close and then ripped from you....I just can't take it anymore....I officially am a cynic and will not believe another thing any model or weatherperson says. And of course after a week of build up for a non snow event we will probably get 50s and 60s and sun ....damn this weather

although they may be correct, i really dislike counter-programmers--people who take joy in crushing the hopes of people just to prove some little aspect of their life.....but to heck with it maybe I should join the club and go on the air and say there is no santa, tooth fairy, easter bunny, or jesus...our life is one big nothing....I t'll be fun to see how that plays out...

jsowers, I'm no weather expert but I think why it is so difficult to predict snow here in MO compared to further North is that we depend on gulf moisture, which is usally being pushed out with the storms that come in, While further north they know they amount of moisture they have to deal with before hand. Which make are weather so interesting here, when that gulf moisture is flowing in we get some spectacular weather.. By the way steady snow here now ground is not covered yet but I'd say its completly dusted with snow.

With all due respect kz1899, I understand meteorology and its difficulties, especially in areas such as the Ozarks.....But predicting 8 inches 1 hour before the system reaches its target and then NO snow falls, not even a sign of a flurry, and the radar shows absolutely nothing with absolutely nothing around (in fact the storm diverges around us and reforms past us!) is a bit disappointing. Also, the word "interesting" is far from what I would call a total 180 of what happens...I would expect a few inches variation here or there, but to predict a major snow event...a winter storm warning, 8 inches of snow, sleet and god knows what else AND GET NOTHING (and I will claim nothing until I see something...and don't give me any "dusting" BS) and then say...well there were some things we didn't see is bologna. How is it that every other place I have ever lived (Phoenix, L.A. NYC, Chicago, OKC, southern Wisconsin, Georgia) has never had two such ramped up forecasts in a row end up with basically nothing. Again I don't blame you or the meteorologists....In fact Pat Robertson and I both know it is an act of God...he (or she) is smiting this region. We should all fear the worst and hope for a large star studded concert to raise money for us to import a butt load of snow to assuage our hunger for a real winter!

0z NAM model



and the 0z GFS model

jsowers77, it looks like you moved to the wrong area. Springfield averages only around 19-20 inches of snow for the entire year. I am sure you used to get all of that at one time. The big snow predictions in advance to just a few inches once it starts is pretty common over the past few years. I have lived here my whole life and back in the 90's this area would get usually 1 or 2 big snows a year. Alot of them would be in March. The last time this area saw a widespread big snow was winter 2002/2003. I think Springfield had around 37 inches total for that winter. Now we have seen plenty of ice storms since then around here, but the big snows for some reason don't happen anymore. It's like severe weather around here, everything has to be perfect for it to happen. Just wanted to give you a heads up as big snows around here just don't happen anymore, even if forecasted. Hopefully that will change one of these days, but 7 years and counting. As I am writing this there is maybe 1/2 inch of snow in west springfield.

One thing I don't understand that I wished someone would explain is why with all the "modern" technology that is available to meterologists today, why is it that winter storms are so hard to predict? Most of the time, spring/summer type storms are right on the money as far as predictions. However, it seems that they struggle with these type of storms. I mean no disrespect toward the meterologists at all, they do the best they can, mother nature does what she wants to do. I just don't really get why they are hard to predict.

Since we're still in the middle of this I don't have a whole lot of time to explain. But I promise to give you all an explanation once things calm down a bit.

The thing to remember... It is still snowing and some have already seen 7 inches. We could still end up with another 2-5 inches on top of what has already fallen before the night is done.

The timing was certainly off a bit and that dry slot last night did not help for the forecast, but it certainly saved us a lot of travel nightmares today in the metro if we already had 5 inches on the ground and tacked on another 3-5 tonight.

More later on the details...

The snow is coming down very heavily in this deformation band. I had 4" at 4 p.m. I can't see where I took my measurements either. The sidewalk was clear at 3... looks to have quite a bit on it now, too.

The forecast was for 5-10 inches of snow. I currently have 5 1/2 inches, which means the prediction was right on!!! Great job Kevin and Craig!!

P.S. and it's still snowing!

well done guys. Better late than never!!!

I'm reading 4-6 inches on the West part of Springfield, MO. Higher amounts mostly due to drifts.

Unofficially (meaning I have measured the snow every time before I brushed it off the jeep) I measured 7 inches at 11pm and I am in Springfield city limits. Good job forecasters...you are like offensive linemen and only get famous when you screw up...but I say a damn good job of holding fast to the predictions no matter what and at the end of it all being right on the bullseye(dare I say double bullseye?!)
By the way, not to be a curmudgeon but almost everyone wants a ton of snow...on the chat site we prayed for it, id names reference the love of snow, and we all seem to cheer on the amounts.....but when the snow falls the weathermen say to stay inside, and drivers complain about the snow and everyone around here seems to be stressed out and mad at it....just an observation. In the north we expect snow and when it comes we don't just deal with it, we unselfconsciously revel in it...we purposefully turn off the 4WD, we set ourselves up for an impossible shift from neutral to first on an icy hill, we have an uncanny way of finding awesome parking lots to see how many spins we can do without brakes and not going over 3000 RPMs...I am not saying midwesterners (aka northerners) are better than upland south residents, but when we want snow we don't pretend then to hate it once it comes...we cheer for it and then revel in it all winter long....For the past two hours I sought out unplowed roads...virgin snow...to feel the connection between man, machine, and environment...So I say springfield/ozarkians go out and enjoy it, go out and throw caution to the wind...if we really cared about safety we never would have left the neonatal ward of the hospital....go out and breathe life and HAVE FUN! Be a rebel and actually enjoy the fruit of your answered prayers.

Jsowers you just needed to wait a bit longer tried to throw the towel in to early last night. I love the snow too, wish I still had my snow machine it would be a blast on these ozarks hills covered in snow.

Final total for me ended up being 7.5". Boy, this storm had a lot of twists and turns!

6 inches about 1 mile West of downtown Springfield.

About 6 inches in Kissee Mills...20 miles NE of Branson

7 inches in Republic. Looks like Kevin's prediction of 6-10 inches before he changed it to 3-6 came true for the most part. Way to go! Just think how much snow everyone would have had if the metro area would of started getting snow around 10 pm as predicted. Probably would of been looking at double digits in inches. I have seen reports around the state line of 11-12 inches.

6 1/2 inches of snow at my house. This proves the forecast was dead on, as usual.

Hey everyone. We are pleased with the snowfall outcome. Our predicted 6"-10" 48 hours before the storm was accurate as most areas in the 6"-10" range got just that. Just before the storm I lowered the amount to 3"-6" for Springfield, and then 5"-8" for areas south of the city. As you can see below, the graphic is the ACTUAL snowfall amounts that fell.



Below was the forecast amount