Thursday, February 4

So....... The 12z GFS decided to come in a wee-bit colder and snowier.....



It is important to note, this is a 120 hour forecast. That means this takes into account both the Thursday/Friday event AND the Sunday/Monday event. So the totals you see on the graphic above are for the entire 120 hour period.

Here is the 12z GFS Bufkit Profile:



Obviously the first thing your eye is caught by is the amount of snow. Don't stress over that just yet. Give us a little more time to worry about that.

The thing I'm stressing over is the amount of cold air that the GFS is sending our way. IF this pans out, we could see the coldest temperatures of the season with lows well below zero. Here is the 12z GFS 850mb prog for next Tuesday night into Wednesday:



It is important to note that this time frame is still almost 7 days out and will change between now and then.

In the meantime, I'm going to go think some warm thoughts....

Wow that is very cold. Those maps usually don't take in the fact of snow on the ground too, so may be colder. I just want to give a shout out to stormsfury, snowman, skywarn82 and whoever else posted in early January that February will be very cold and snowy. I didn't believe it at the time as they were forecasting a month in advance, but now it looks like they all hit it right on!!

Since the school has blocked out the model data for some stupid reason, what is that model saying for snow totals over the next 120 hours?

Godzilla1954 wrote:Since the school has blocked out the model data for some stupid reason, what is that model saying for snow totals over the next 120 hours?

It's saying 8-10 inches of snow

This may wind up being one of those events where one or two degrees plays havoc with a forecast. I don't envy Kevin, Craig, or any of the meteorologists forecasting this system.

Thanks Gary! This one is for sure a tough one. Almost a NOWcast since the thermal profiles will determine everything hours before.

Once upper air soundings are done tomorrow morning we will have a better idea.

Is it possible this could be a minor ice storm for some areas? If so, what areas are more likely to be affected by ice rather than snow?

Ice shouldnt be a concern with this system. Its going to be a cold rain event for Springfield Metro

no disrespect but its not of complety ruled out that we could'nt see a little ice but only time will tell

weloveourhailey wrote:Ice shouldnt be a concern with this system. Its going to be a cold rain event for Springfield Metro

Has a new model came out that totally ruled ice/snow out?? Just wondering if a new one came out that had a different view of the ones I have seen. From everything I have looked at it looks like a hard one to call and their could be a chance for ice/snow....depending on the temp at the time. Maybe I am wrong though.

Ah you never know what your going to get from hailey. Posts go from ice storm to no ice storm in a matter of a few hours. This morning they posted it will be just a few inches of snow for Springfield area.

their like a box of chocolates you never know what your going to get lol

Lets date back to the 2002-2003 El Nino season. I've been doing some research and man was the first half of the month of May VERY active! One date in particular none of us who have lived here for many years will ever forget, May 4th, 2003. But there were several other dates where the SPC had high risks for severe storms, it was a very active month indeed. Now it's the El Nino season of 2009-2010, the month of January recieved 11.6" of snow and more is predicted in the forecast. In fact the latest 18Z GFS putting down a good 10 to 15" snowfall for SW MO. All in all winter is not over and even though after the Sun/Mon storm the models aren't showing much but just COLD, I'm willing to bet it's gonna get active again. Spring storm season should be very fun for me and my chasing crew, as I will be taking my vacation April 28th through May 12th. So with this said I predict an active pattern all the through the month of June, but for now SNOW and in my opinion LOTS of it.

Stormman wrote:In fact the latest 18Z GFS putting down a good 10 to 15" snowfall for SW MO.

I'm just curious but is this the combined total for both Friday's and Monday's storm, or just Friday?

That was just the totals for the Sun/Mon storm.

Stormman, I hope you're right about the weather staying active through June. We didn't have a very good spring storm season last year and I'm hoping this year is better. I love watching thunderstorms. And, since I have a medical condition that could and is taking my eyesight, my dream is to watch a tornado drop from the sky. Maybe I will get to see one this year. I love active weather.

Sorry to hear that NixaDorothy. Maybe I can arrange something, would you like to go on a storm chase? I mean I have a vacation coming up late April thru May... I'm sure it's gonna be active.

Model fun time...

Here is the 0z NAM:



Here is the Oz GFS: (Don't forget, this is a 120 hour run so it has next week's snow in this graphic)



Keep checking back here tomorrow. Our plan is to keep you updated here as well as with some special updates on KSPR.com!

Stormman, I would love to go on a storm chase. I've been wanting to become a weather watcher for a long time and my husband and I want to do that when our kids are grown. That's still several years away, so I don't know if I will be able to do it then. Doing one this summer would be cool. Thank you for the offer.

Winter Weather Advisory up for SW MO now from this evening through Friday. 1-3" of snow officially forecasted now from the NWS in Springfield.

Stormman it is very uncommon for SW MO to have a high risk of severe weather. The few times I have recalled it is when we had a huge tornado outbreak. Here is the 3 huge outbreaks we have experienced in the past years.

May 4th, 2003 http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/archive/2003/day1otlk_20030504_1630.html

March 12th, 2006
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/archive/2006/day1otlk_20060312_2000.html

January 7th, 2008
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/archive/2008/day1otlk_20080107_2000.html

Only a slight chance of tornados in the Jan outbreak, but I believe around 33 different touchdowns. At least for the most part they weren't long lived. 2010 tornado season will be in full force this year!!!

I'm in Ozark and it's snowing big chunks and also freezing rain right now. It looks pretty though!

Hi all,

Reporting in from North Nixa we were getting a mix here but it seems to be more snow now thi was at 12 noon.

Me in Nixa again at 1500hrs we have nothing falling from the skies. It was snowing and then changed to freezing rain then to just rain. What a nightmare for forecasting LOL!

here in ozark,mo we currently have light rain and 33 degrees