January 6th and 7th Snowfall Event

markbHalltown wrote:Im not too sure but if you compare the runs against the current positioning of the low the models have it wrong and the low is positioned further south than the models are depicting. could be interesting.

Can you give me an estimation of how much farther south the low is going compared to the models?

I think we are going to get less snow than expected these clippers coming from the west coast usually doesnt have a whole lot of moisture to work with. My prediction 1 inch in Springfield Metro

I would say that one inch is certainly a possible outcome. However 4 inches is as well, will definitely be interesting to watch. I will post some more thoughts later after the 00z suite of models come in. For that matter did not realize how late it is. The NAM should be running.

Godzilla, what I have noticed is that the nam 12z and gfs 12z depict the low on the border of North and south Dakota and Minnesota at 6p.m. tonight. when in reality the low was positioned in the center of Wyoming. I think it will come in further south due to this and raise the currently forecasted totals by about 2 inches if you move the total map accordingly. Move the 2-4 towards Arkansas. The 4-6 over Springfield. Of course these are my own meandering thoughts. But looking at the satellite of the position of the low along with the pressure bars. And the way the models are depicting, its either slowed down, or taking a more southerly route. I believe the latter to be more true because of the wind pressure from the north pushing on it. I think its going to spin harder than expected and become a deeper trough.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/nam/00/images/nam_p12_036l.gif

Interesting analysis markb. I honestly hadn't considered that possibility.

0z NAM looks a little wetter. I will be curious to see what the other models do with this system.

Thank you Gary. That Nam image of 12 hour precip is kind of a confirmation for me to. If you use the estimated 15:1 ratio that is predicted .25 precip will equal 3.75 inches over much of s.w. mo. btw Gary this is spfldmark from chat.

Excited to see what the 0z GFS puts down.

Hello everybody. New to the forum here but have been browsing and reading a couple of days now regarding our upcoming storm. I have to admit, as a winter lover, this one has my interest. One of my worries WRT snowfall in SW MO with this storm is the fact that clippers are notoriously modeled wrong, either track or precip amts. We are close now to this one happening and we are getting some pretty good model consensus. I see most of the snow with this one falling over the NE Ozark region, due to modeling leaning that way now and the fact that a lot of times clippers generally come thru more north and east of their projected path. Just my opinion here though. In reference to Mark's comment about low positioning I would like to offer this comment. If you take a look at a regional satellite loop over the NW US and southern Canada you will notice a spin showing up just to the north of the US/Canada border above Montana. This is our upper low at 500 MB's that will eventually sweep across the plains and Mid Miss Valley. Now take a look at the initial 500 MB low position projected on the 0z NAM. It is pretty much identical in its position as what satellite is confirming at this time. As much as I want to see this dig more and come across further south so far it is behaving as the NAM has projected. Perhaps it digs more than modeled as time goes on - guess we can only hope. Come on snow!!

Brand new 0z model data from our in-house computer model. Staying along the same lines it has projected the past few runs.

Ah I do digress Storm, I didnt notice the upper low. I was looking at the surface low. Thats why im not a professional lol. Still hoping it digs though.

Trust me Mark I certainly understand as I am no professional myself. Just try to read a number of weather forums and learn what I can there. Looks like the 0z GFS is in now and not much change there as far as digging and total QPF is concerned. I still dont see this as a big snow maker, especially across the southern Ozarks. I think it will be a quick hitter with some impressive snows for a short time tomorrow evening as that front comes through. But best lift and moisture remain further NE of here.

In addition to the Winter Weather Advisory there is now a Wind Chill Advisory in effect through 6 pm Friday.

I am curious as to the onset of the snow myself. The model data I have looked at doesn't want to break out the snow across the region until this evening. NWS believes saturation may occur sooner. The timing of when the snow starts could play a role in overall accumulation. We shall see.

Regardless of how much snow falls, it will be blowing around like crazy.

Here are the latest watch/warning/advisories in from The NWS. This map should update each time you come to the forum. If not you can find it here: http://www.kspr.com/weather/watchesandwarnings

The wind chill advisory will not show up yet because the winter weather advisory "out ranks" it for now.

Here are the latest numbers from the Hi-Res FutureCast. This is from the 12z run this morning. Notice it keeps the heavier amounts to the north and even drops the accumulations to the south. This has been the trend with a lot of the models lately. It certainly doesn't mean we'll see less snow as the snow ratios could be as high as 20:1 and the model may not be keying in on that. For now I'd be prepared for the numbers Kevin posted above in this thread until we see more data this afternoon and evening.

Is it just me or does all the snow appear to be staying North of the area?

Just started snowinf near Ft. wood at 2:45

started snowing in nixa about 3:15pm.

Been snowing in Crocker(Pulaski Co) since 2:30ish....Coming down pretty good now but flakes are still kinda small.

Once again... looks like Monett is the odd one out concerning the snow.

started lightly snowing here in Summersville at 3 pm was coming down heavily by 4pm and it still is.....

Its coming down in Dogwood as well...I would call it heavy flurries or light constant snow at this point. Steady but not overly huge flakes just yet....

Nothing here @ Berryville, AR as of yet..

I am a student in Kickapoo high school. I just wanted to let you know that you are doing a good thing here. This helps get people involved who would not normally bother with analysing the weather. Just thought I would let you know. You have already talked about how it is doubtful that Springfield schools will close tomorrow. but is there any chance on friday in your opinion? Thanks again.

Northern Joplin has about 1/10th of an inch of ice on everything. UGH!