Thursday, January 28th

THEY CAN CHANGE STILL BUT SINCE THE STORM HAS STARTED TO MOVE ON LAND THIS MAY EXPLAIN FOR THE SLOW DOWN ON THE 00Z NAM WHICH LOOKS TO BE RIGHT THERE IS A MODEL CALLED THE ECMWF IT SHOWED THE STORM SLOWING DOWN ALSO TODAY SO THE NAM MODEL MAYBE RIGHT !!!

Yes models do tend to over estimate on how much precip a certain area will recieve. Forecasts only begin to become better understood 2 days out leading up to the event. Even then small scale features can play a MAJOR role in how much and where precip will fall. It's best to stay tuned to KSPR as we get closer to those dates.

Latest GFS is pretty much in line with the last one...still bringing Springfield and points south a good amount of snow!

I NOTICED THE GFS DIDNT CHANGE ANY IT STAYED THE SAME THE NAM MAYBE A LIER!!!

Dont mean to alarm anybody but tonite's GFS showing close to a foot of snow along and south of I-44.

I just looked at the latest GFS snowfall model map and it is showing the bullseye of the snow over Christian, Taney and Stone counties. I know we need to look for trends and not single model runs, but I will definitely keep my eyes on this. What is everyone's thoughts.

I think the GFS is overdoing the precip amount right now. What we have to worry about is there is alot of supression that could push this storm to the south of us.

The EURO just ran. It took the low WAY south as well as the snow chances for missouri

Winter Storm Watch for counties along and south of Highway 60. This includes many of the KSPR viewers, including places like Monett, Nixa, and Branson.

Here is the latest GFS snowfall output. Wow!

http://wxcaster.com/gis-gfs-snow-overlays.php3?STATIONID=SGF

The NAM shows less than an inch for springfield

That is crazy how one model says Springfield will get 14 inches of snow and another model says 1 inch of snow. From what I can see the NAM is in line with the GFS. I do think this will be about like the christmas snow as Springfield was forecasted to get 5-7 inches and just got 1 inch. Springfield area has been doomed the past few years with big snows. I think MO/AR border will be the cutoff. Looks like de ja vu for northern arkansas like last year with alittle less ice, but lots of snow.

The NAM just ran it is more in line with the GFS bringing more precip to springfield

I looked at 3 different models and they all show Christian County in some pretty high snow amounts. Are these models over predicting these amounts or are the models coming in pretty accurate? I don't want to get my hopes up if we are only going to really get 1-2 inches. Any thoughts on this?

I know we are still a couple of days out and things can change but we now have a pretty good consensus between the GFS, NAM, and the Canadian GGEM on a path of pretty heavy snow along and S Hwy 60, maybe even up to the 44 corridor. Based on trends of trying to nudge things a bit north today I think even Joplin-SGF get in on some pretty significant snows. Waiting on the Euro to jump on board before I get any more confident. It will be out by 1PM.

I wonder why the NWS is not putting Springfield in the watch areas? The GFS and NAM are both putting heavy snows up to I44

Here is the 12z GFS Bufkit profile for Springfield:



The latest runs continue with the slower, snowier path. This trend is very believable to me as the system is now onshore and is getting sampled by the upper-air network quite well.

The slower the movement the better for snow chances as that gets the cold air time to move in. That will also lead to the more southerly track. With this track, don't be surprised if some areas along the state line see a swath of 10-12 inches. Stay tuned for more later this evening/tonight!

Correct me if I am wrong, but aren't all the computer models pointing towards a more northerly track? What is the reason for going with everything south when the models seem to continue to track it pretty close to I-44?

The models have slowed the arrival of the system down. This gives the surface ridge more time to move south as well as the upper level trough.

All of that means the track of the center of the storm system has shifted father south. We will be on the northern side of the low but the center track is south. Therefore we (Springfield) will be on the colder, snowier side of the storm. Obviously the forecast will continue to be refined up until it moves through.

If this trend continues, we could end up lowering snow predictions for Springfield. Either way, someone in our viewing area, mostly likely our southern viewing area, will be dealing with a significant winter storm.

Kevin is in this afternoon and will have more here and on the blog a bit later.

That's exactly why I think us around the Springfield area will get next to nothing out of this storm. Areas around the state line and south will get hammered by this storm. Hopefully the next winter storm, if anymore this year will paint a bullseye over Springfield.

NWS just came out with the accumulations forecast:

* HEAVY SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT ALONG AND SOUTH OF A COLUMBUS KANSAS TO SPRINGFIELD TO EMINENCE MISSOURI LINE...WITH SNOW SLOWLY DIMINISHING ON FRIDAY.

* SNOW AND ICE ACCUMULATION...SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO 7 INCHES
WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE HIGHWAY 60 CORRIDOR...WITH SNOW AND
SLEET ACCUMULATIONS OF 7 TO 10 INCHES POSSIBLE SOUTH OF A NEOSHO
TO AVA TO WEST PLAINS LINE.

They also included the next tier of counties north in the winter storm watch which now includes Springfield area. Only time will tell and I bet the forecast will change 2 or 3 times till then. I just don't see much more then a inch or two around the metro area.

I think we are seeing what this storm could turn into based on the last couple of runs of the higher resolution NAM model. Yes it has a tendency to overstate its precip amts but it may be catching onto a stronger trend with the dynamics of this storm. Just reading some other weather chat boards out there it has been brought to my attention a similar setup existed Christmas Eve, 2002. In case you werent around here for that storm there was around 12-16 inches along and S of the interstate. Models didnt catch on to an enhanced jet coming around the backside until late in the game and we had quite the storm vs what was forecasted a few days earlier. That particular storm took on a classic SW-NE orientation. We have a stronger high pressure in place to the NE this time around which may account for more of a W-E track vs the storm from 2002. Just speculation and opinion at this time of course. Bring on the snow!

A look at my forecast from Tuesday night.

SUBJECT TO CHANGE

Wow! Things are really setting up for a doozy of a snowstorm, this is going to be a super fun one to watch develop!!!

Our 18z HI-RES Futurecast model run. Showing the precip Thursday night. Notice the rain which could be freezing rain across AR and the heavy snow north of that.

Any ideas on what the drive home is going to look like on Thursday?