Monday/Tuesday Feb. 8/9

First look at another winter event possible early next week.

Here we go again! Although yes the 12Z GFS was painting another storm earlier today, the latest 18Z GFS pushed the storm South. It's gonna be interesting to see how it plays out.

After the latest model data I think with the posistion of the polar vortex I think its going to push the storm to the southern coast. I think its going to go way south of us.

And what model of choice did you see that outcome on Hailey? Not sure I saw any model today with that kind of outcome.

Natalie mentions in the VLOG this morning this should not be a major event just maybe light snow!!!

Hailey your posts are so off the wall. One day you will say that winter is over and welcome to spring. Next day you will say a ice storm is looking possible. Next day that same storm is going way south of us. How can you predict winter to be over and then call for a ice storm in the next day???

weatherplus wrote:Hailey your posts are so off the wall. One day you will say that winter is over and welcome to spring. Next day you will say a ice storm is looking possible. Next day that same storm is going way south of us. How can you predict winter to be over and then call for a ice storm in the next day???

You might want to reread my post I was giving Natalies thoughts not mine!!!!

I wasn't referring to that one post. I was just meaning all of the posts in general. On Jan. 30th you post: "Appears to have had our last winter storm for winter!" Yesterday you post: "Everyone I am concerned about next weeks storm!! Looks like a possible ice storm for sw missouri!! Keep an eye on this!!" Then 3 hours later you post "the polar vortex I think its going to push the storm to the southern coast. I think its going to go way south of us". Just very odd how you change your mind so much on the weather.

Maybe welovehailey works for some of the competitors! They seem to change their minds a lot.

Disclaimer: I am in no way encouraging any further posts or implying the incompetence of any other station in the region. I am just trying to lighten the mood.

To get us back on track... the models today seem to really latch onto this storm. I am concerned about storm supression from the polar vortex. I guess time will tell.

18Z GFS this evening showig the system too far South for any meaningful precip. At this time it appears that the low will just of the Gulf Coast. Things can certainly change and will change, if things do change another decent snow will be possible, but at this time only very light snow looks possible.:p

GFS is painting more moisture with this system now over SW MO for the 8th. The cold air won't be a problem, so this storm may be like the one were getting ready to deal with on Friday. One thing that does look certain is the very cold temps starting late Sunday and lasting for at least 2 weeks. Not many storms look very promising after the 8th system, but the cold air sure will be in place!!!

I don't expect these next 2 storms to be too severe. We may get a couple inches in Springfield metro out of these. The long range charts don't show anything exciting that I can see. Winter appears to be winding down as far a precip goes. But it will be cold!

WELL HERE IS MY THOUGHTS ON NEXT WEEKS STORM AS OF RIGHT NOW IT LOOKS LIKE IT COULD TAKE THE SAME PATH AS THE LAST BIG WINTER STORM TOOK AT THE SAME TIME ARTTIC AIR WILL BE COMING SOUTH THE EURO IS THE SLOWEST MODEL RIGHT NOW WHICH HAS HAD A GOOD TRACK RECORD THIS WINTER THE GFS ON THE OTHER HAND HAS NOT ON THE 12Z GFS TODAY IT LOOKED LIKE IT WAS STARTING TO GO TO THE EUROS SOLUTION FOR THE STORM BUT WAS STILL A LITTTLE TO FAST BUT AS OF RIGHT NOW WE COULD BE SEEING A GOOD DEAL OF SNOW NEXT WEEK AS FAR AS THE REST OF FEBUARY WELL I DONT FEEL ITS GOING TO BE A EASY ONE IN ABOUT A WEEK AND A HALF I THINK THE PATTERN WILL GET VERY ACTIVE OUT IN THE PACIFIC THERE ARE SEVERAL STORMS STARTING TO LINE UP BUT IT IS GOING TO TAKE SOME TIME GETTING HERE SO DONT THROW YOUR WINTER HATS AWAY I THINK THERE IS STILL ALOT OF WINTER AND WINTER MAY HAVE A HARD TIME LEAVING!!!

0z GFS data is in, looks like 0C or freezing line will setup on the MO/Ark border. Latest guidance shows a fairly decent amount of moisture over SW MO. From Joplin to SGF the GFS was putting down 1 to 1.25" of moisture, a little early yet to be forecasting amounts but the way things look now... in a 10:1 ratio 1.25"=12.5" of snow. My suggestion is to keep a very close eye on this one.

Yes there are alot of different weather services really starting to key in on this storm. Tomorrow's storm is looking like 1-3 inches of very wet snow sticking to grasses. Shouldn't be too much travel trouble. Then the storm for Monday!!! I really think this will be as bad if not worse then the Friday, Jan 29th storm. Let's just hope that there isn't a darn dry slot form with this storm and that the Springfield Metro area can get a foot of snow out of this!!

12Z GFS toned down a wee bit on moisture, still looks like a decent snow though for SW MO. Each model run though has very consistent on putting some decent snow down accross the region. Gonna be fun to watch this one evolve.

Looking at the long range charts, it looks as though the active pattern will pick up again and last for some time through the month of Febuary, my hunch is that ths pattern will not subside till late May, heck maybe not till mid June.

It looks like the 18Z model run of the GFS slowed the system down and brought more precipitation to the area! The model runs have been pretty consistent on bringing a winter storm to the area! It will be very interesting to see what the model runs do in the next couple of days!

Yeah the GFS has done a good job with this system. I started to track it at the 384 hour mark which is about 15 days out. It has flip flop around some, but has continue to show a chance at winter weather for the 8th timeframe. As we near this storm I think it will be a monster!!! It will be great to watch the Super Bowl Sunday night and then monitor the winter storm!!!

This storm does definitely needs to be watched. The next few model runs will be interesting to see how it handles the storm.

weather37 wrote:It looks like the 18Z model run of the GFS slowed the system down and brought more precipitation to the area! The model runs have been pretty consistent on bringing a winter storm to the area! It will be very interesting to see what the model runs do in the next couple of days!

How much longer will we have to wait for this system to hit as of this model run?

The system itself looks to begin impacting the area some time on Sunday. It appears that it won't be onshore and able to be sampled until sometime Saturday morning. All indications seem to me that this storm may be the strongest we have seen so far this winter. Hope I am wrong!

@ Godzilla1954

The 18Z run brought the storm into the area around the overnight hours Sunday into Monday, so not a lot slower, but definately noticeable. I'm sure Kevin and Craig will talk about this if the next few model runs slow the system down like the 18Z. They're the meteorologists, not me, so I could be wrong about the 18Z slowing it down.

Here is the HPC's prediction of the chances for a 4"+ snowfall on day 3, which would be Sunday: