Monday/Tuesday Feb. 8/9

springfieldnewsnut wrote:

Gary_Monett wrote: Make up your mind models! Thank you. That is all.

No joke! I don't buy the models this time.

Maybe we should play pin-the-tail-on-the-weather map to forecast snowfall totals.

I find throwing different colored darts at the weather maps helpful hehehe.

FLUS43 KSGF 071901
HWOSGF

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
101 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2010

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-081915-
BOURBON-CRAWFORD-CHEROKEE-BENTON-MORGAN-MILLER-MARIES-VERNON-
ST. CLAIR-HICKORY-CAMDEN-PULASKI-PHELPS-BARTON-CEDAR-POLK-DALLAS-
LACLEDE-TEXAS-DENT-JASPER-DADE-GREENE-WEBSTER-WRIGHT-NEWTON-
LAWRENCE-CHRISTIAN-DOUGLAS-HOWELL-SHANNON-MCDONALD-BARRY-STONE-
TANEY-OZARK-OREGON-
101 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF THE MISSOURI
OZARKS AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

LIGHT SNOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS SUNDAY
EVENING AND MOVE INTO SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND PORTIONS OF
SOUTHWEST MISSOURI OVERNIGHT...GENERALLY NORTHWEST OF AN AREA FROM
KIMBERLING CITY TO SPRINGFIELD TO OSAGE BEACH. MINOR ACCUMULATION
UP TO ONE INCH WILL BE POSSIBLE BY TUESDAY MORNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

PERIODS OF SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE OUTLOOK AREA
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY MORNING. STORM TOTAL ACCUMULATION OF
3 TO 6 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THE HEAVIEST AMOUNTS LIKELY ACROSS SOUTHEAST KANSAS...FAR WEST
MISSOURI AND SOUTHERN MISSOURI.

INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.

EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT...MEDIA AND THOSE WITH TRAVEL PLANS SHOULD
CLOSELY MONITOR WEATHER INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE IN SPRINGFIELD MISSOURI AS THIS WINTER STORM UNFOLDS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED THROUGH TONIGHT.

&&

THIS PRODUCT IS NOW AVAILABLE IN GRAPHICAL FORMAT...ALONG WITH
OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND CLIMATE INFORMATION...AT
HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/SGF(ALL LOWERCASE)

$$

ANGLE

Not even to the fellas at our NWS Forecast Office in Springfield have a clue as to what will or will not happen with this crazy winter storm.

Latest KSPR Weather Blog

SUNDAY BLOG POST

The main page says that Kevin left a post at 1:56 p.m. today, Sunday, February 7, however; no post from Kevin shows at that time.

Also, for those of you who missed this last night in the chat room......

I am originally from northern Jefferson County here in Missouri (the High Ridge and House Springs area to be precise). Just a hair over 28 years ago (in February of 1982) the NWS Forecast Office in St. Louis forecasted a 4 inch snow event. It started out that Saturday night as a rain storm that changed to snow. Well, we got our 4 inches of snow....but it didn't stop there. What happened next shocked everyone in the STL area. There was a totally unexpected development of thunderstorms over parts of East Central Missouri that turned a relatively minor snow event into a bona fide monster snowstorm. There was a HUGE flash of lightning in the northern part (I think it was in St. Charles County) that could be seen for between 75 and 100 miles. And the thunder from that monster bolt of lightning literally shook everything in its wake. Needless to say that our forecasted 4 inches suddenly changed to 18 + inches. And with the winds caused by the thunderstorms produced snow drifts no less than 3 feet deep.

I will never forget the great blizzard of 1982.

So no matter how good the modern day computer models may be, there just comes a time once in a great while when you're someone like Kevin or Craig that instead of relying on the models you just have to play this "wait and see" game with Mother Nature and just make the best snowfall forecast you possibly can.

WWUS43 KSGF 072036
WSWSGF

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
236 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2010

...SNOW SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY MORNING...

.SNOW IS ANTICIPATED TO DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND FAR
WEST MISSOURI LATE SUNDAY NIGHT WITH THE APPROACH OF AN UPPER
LEVEL STORM SYSTEM. THE SNOW WILL SPREAD EAST ACROSS THE OZARKS
THROUGH MONDAY. PERIODS OF SNOW ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MONDAY
BEFORE ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE AREA LATE MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY MORNING WITH THE STORM SYSTEM TRACKING TOWARDS THE
OHIO VALLEY.


MOZ071-082-083-092-096>098-104>106-080445-
/O.UPG.KSGF.WS.A.0002.100208T0600Z-100209T1200Z/
/O.NEW.KSGF.WW.Y.0005.100208T1200Z-100209T1200Z/
PHELPS-TEXAS-DENT-WRIGHT-DOUGLAS-HOWELL-SHANNON-TANEY-OZARK-
OREGON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ROLLA...HOUSTON...CABOOL...SALEM...
MOUNTAIN GROVE...MANSFIELD...AVA...WEST PLAINS...WINONA...
EMINENCE...BRANSON...FORSYTH...GAINESVILLE...THEODOSIA...THAYER...
ALTON
236 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2010

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM MONDAY TO 6 AM CST
TUESDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SPRINGFIELD HAS ISSUED A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM MONDAY
TO 6 AM CST TUESDAY. THE WINTER STORM WATCH IS NO LONGER IN
EFFECT.

* TIMING AND AREAS AFFECTED...SNOW IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD ACROSS SOUTHWEST
AND SOUTH CENTRAL MISSOURI MONDAY MORNING AND BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD
MONDAY NIGHT. THE SNOW WILL TAPER OFF EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.

* SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION OF 3 TO 6
INCHES IS POSSIBLE WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS. THE HEAVIEST SNOW
IS ANTICIPATED ACROSS SOUTHERN MISSOURI.

* IMPACTS...TRAVEL WILL LIKELY BECOME DIFFICULT WITH SNOW CREATING
SNOW PACKED ROADWAYS. LIGHT SNOW WITH ONLY MINOR ACCUMULATION
IS EXPECTED DURING THE MONDAY MORNING COMMUTE WITH HEAVIER SNOW
AND MORE SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATION ANTICIPATED FOR THE MONDAY EVENING
COMMUTE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW MEANS THAT PERIODS OF SNOW
WILL CAUSE PRIMARILY TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR SNOW
COVERED ROADS AND LIMITED VISIBILITIES...AND USE CAUTION WHILE
DRIVING.

&&

$$

ANGLE

WWUS43 KSGF 072036
WSWSGF

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
236 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2010

...SNOW SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY MORNING...

.SNOW IS ANTICIPATED TO DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND FAR
WEST MISSOURI LATE SUNDAY NIGHT WITH THE APPROACH OF AN UPPER
LEVEL STORM SYSTEM. THE SNOW WILL SPREAD EAST ACROSS THE OZARKS
THROUGH MONDAY. PERIODS OF SNOW ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MONDAY
BEFORE ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE AREA LATE MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY MORNING WITH THE STORM SYSTEM TRACKING TOWARDS THE
OHIO VALLEY.

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>070-077>081-088>091-093>095-101>103-
080445-
/O.UPG.KSGF.WS.A.0002.100208T0600Z-100209T1200Z/
/O.NEW.KSGF.WW.Y.0005.100208T0600Z-100209T1200Z/
BOURBON-CRAWFORD-CHEROKEE-BENTON-MORGAN-MILLER-MARIES-VERNON-
ST. CLAIR-HICKORY-CAMDEN-PULASKI-BARTON-CEDAR-POLK-DALLAS-LACLEDE-
JASPER-DADE-GREENE-WEBSTER-NEWTON-LAWRENCE-CHRISTIAN-MCDONALD-
BARRY-STONE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...FORT SCOTT...PITTSBURG...
BAXTER SPRINGS...COLUMBUS...WARSAW...COLE CAMP...VERSAILLES...
ELDON...LAKE OZARK...VIENNA...NEVADA...APPLETON CITY...OSCEOLA...
HERMITAGE...OSAGE BEACH...CAMDENTON...FORT LEONARD WOOD...
WAYNESVILLE...LAMAR...EL DORADO SPRINGS...STOCKTON...BOLIVAR...
BUFFALO...LEBANON...JOPLIN...CARTHAGE...GREENFIELD...
SPRINGFIELD...MARSHFIELD...ROGERSVILLE...NEOSHO...AURORA...
MOUNT VERNON...NIXA...OZARK...ANDERSON...PINEVILLE...MONETT...
CASSVILLE...KIMBERLING CITY...GALENA
236 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2010

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO
6 AM CST TUESDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SPRINGFIELD HAS ISSUED A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT TO 6 AM CST TUESDAY. THE WINTER STORM WATCH IS NO LONGER
IN EFFECT.

* TIMING AND AREAS AFFECTED...SNOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS
THE AREA TONIGHT AND BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD OVERNIGHT. PERIODS
OF SNOW WILL OCCUR THROUGH MONDAY WITH THE SNOW ENDING LATE MONDAY
NIGHT.

* SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION OF 3 TO 6
INCHES IS POSSIBLE WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS. THE HEAVIEST SNOW
IS ANTICIPATED ACROSS SOUTHEAST KANSAS...WEST MISSOURI AND SOUTHERN
MISSOURI.

* IMPACTS...TRAVEL WILL LIKELY BECOME DIFFICULT WITH SNOW AMOUNTS
CREATING SNOW PACKED ROADWAYS. SNOW...WITH ACCUMULATION NEAR AN
INCH IN SOME LOCATIONS...IS EXPECTED DURING THE MONDAY MORNING
COMMUTE. HEAVIER SNOW WITH MORE SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATION IS ANTICIPATED
FOR THE MONDAY EVENING COMMUTE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW MEANS THAT PERIODS OF SNOW
WILL CAUSE PRIMARILY TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR SNOW
COVERED ROADS AND LIMITED VISIBILITIES...AND USE CAUTION WHILE
DRIVING.

&&

$$

ANGLE

NWS in Springfield has gone with a Winter Weather Advisory for the entire area:

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SPRINGFIELD HAS ISSUED A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT TO 6 AM CST TUESDAY. THE WINTER STORM WATCH IS NO LONGER
IN EFFECT.

* TIMING AND AREAS AFFECTED...SNOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS
THE AREA TONIGHT AND BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD OVERNIGHT. PERIODS
OF SNOW WILL OCCUR THROUGH MONDAY WITH THE SNOW ENDING LATE MONDAY
NIGHT.

* SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION OF 3 TO 6
INCHES IS POSSIBLE WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS. THE HEAVIEST SNOW
IS ANTICIPATED ACROSS SOUTHEAST KANSAS...WEST MISSOURI AND SOUTHERN
MISSOURI.

I really don't get why Tulsa is in a Winter Storm Warning when we are in a Winter Weather Advisory. Aren't we supposed to get more snow than they are?!

its not all based on snow totals. if they are forcast to get more ice they will have the stronger warning. its all about timing and location with this thing.

I don't think they are supposed to get ice though. Btw, the 18Z NAM only put 1 inch down for Springfield.

Bowtie- I remember that snowstorm in 1982 I was living in union missouri at the time and my grandmother had died there was a lot of thundersnow!! That was an event!

I think that the NWS put us under an advisory so they would have more time to see how the storm devolps because they can always upgrade but thats just my opinon

cardsfan wrote:I think that the NWS put us under an advisory so they would have more time to see how the storm devolps because they can always upgrade but thats just my opinon

That could possibly be true cardsfan. I just watched a hazardous weather briefing from the NWS in St. Louis and they still say that a large part of MO could possibly get 6 + inches of snow by Tuesday morning.

If anyone wishes to view this briefing click on the link below:
Multimedia Hazardous Weather Briefing... NWS St. Louis MO

The NAM seems to be initializing surface temperatures too warm in my opinion. I think the GFS has a better handle on this system. Regardless... snowfall is a good bet across the region.

It looks like we will still have to wait to see if we will need four-day units or five-day units this week at school!

hmmmm two major storms with such huge variability coming together....Okay...upon looking at every model, considering historical data, and consulting with the ghosts of Hunter S. Thompson and Johnny Carson...I can predict with 99.9% accuracy that Springfield, MO or some area within 100 miles around it will get between NO SNOW and 2 feet of snow sometime between now and 4 days. Of course, there is that . .1% of possible error, so maybe instead of snow it could be mythical creatures from some fictional novel...so be advised.

I'm predicting 6-10 inches for Springfield. I think once the two storms join there will be heavy snow at times. I think it will start at 11 pm and last through Tuesday morning. I believe all the snow will happen when it's freezing or below. I've read some places even placing an additional 1-3 inches of snow on Tuesday. We shall just have to see how this all pans out.

Everyone I think the NAM has a good handle on the storm and the forecast that KSPR put out is a good forecast. As much as we would like to see 6+ inches I dont see it happening. I think it will be closer to 3 inches for Springfield metro.

weloveourhailey wrote:Everyone I think the NAM has a good handle on the storm and the forecast that KSPR put out is a good forecast. As much as we would like to see 6+ inches I dont see it happening. I think it will be closer to 3 inches for Springfield metro.

I honestly don't know just how much faith I would put in the NAM. The NWS forecast offices in Kansas City and St. Louis are still saying that a large part of MO could possibly get 6 or more inches.

NWS Pleasant Hill/Kansas City Weather Story

NWS St. Louis MO Weather Story

Starting to snow, very light, here on the West part of Springfield.

I really don't see this being much for the Springfield area. All of the good moisture will be down in North Central Arkansas area. The liquid moisture for Springfield is now .25 which is around 2.5 inches of snow. About every site is downplaying this storm. I would expect about 3 or 4 inches in Springfield. You all know we will never hear the end of this if Springfield gets around 3 inches as hailey predicted that like 3 or 4 days ago. Ha, Ha!

Nothing yet in S Nixa.

Looks like this one cell west of Greene county could impact the metro area in about 1-2 hours

It has been lightly snowing in Monett since 7.

Why does there always seem to be a big dry spot around springfield around this time of the night? I don't understand it. Could someone please explain?