Monday/Tuesday Feb. 8/9

I was wondeirng what you guys think about the temperatures for Monday. To me, it looks like it will be too warm for much snow and mostly rain. What do you guys think?

It depends where you live. I would say extreme Southern MO / Northern Arkansas will see some rain and more of a mix from this storm. The surface temps will be warmer as well, so snow will take awhile to start sticking. I would think for everyone living from HWY 60 and north, should be cold enough for all snow. It seems like the GFS is now even slowing the storm down more. Looks like snow won't start till Monday morning and last all the way till Tuesday morning. By this time tomorrow we will know alot more model wise as it will be on shore by then.

Latest 6z GFS has stayed consistent on slowing this storm down and pulling in more moisture... need I say more. It's too early yet to put down an accurate snow totals forecast but at this point it looks like most of SW MO will be dealing with a fairly decent amount of snow, and if I had to say how much at this time. 10 to 15", as always subject to change. To answer your question Greatness, it looks like the 0C line will setup up on the MO/ARK border. Looks like a classic winter storm attm.

I am confused because the NWS keeps upping the temperatures for Monday, but in the blog, it says that the computer models keep lowering temperatures. Something is not adding up.

Hello all... The models look to be bringing a little more moisture, but also a little more warm air into the Ozarks Monday. This will make the snow total forecast a very tough one. If the models are correct, snow totals will be lower and we will deal with a mix to start things before changing over to snow. Either way, the moisture will be here and some folks stand a decent shot at least another 6 inches of snow. That's not everyone though and it is too soon to pinpoint any locations.

Here are the latest snow total models from the 12z run Friday.

First the NAM:


And the GFS:

That would be just our luck for warmer temps. This storm today cause pretty much a dud due to warmer temps. It's winter! We can get warmer temps in the spring, summer, and fall. I really hope temps are cold! The 2 models don't make sense. The NAM paints about 1 inch of snow around Mt. Home, ARK, and then the GFS puts about 16-18 inches.

Everyone I wouldnt get too excited about the snow on monday. Some of the models are coming in line with what I said last week. It may be a little too warm for alot of snow with this system. We may get a lot of cold rain!! You heard it here first!!

The NAM only goes out to 84 hours, so that's not the whole storm total. The GFS is though.

No disrespect, but I just want it to do something so hailey will be wrong! Bring on the snow!

I am tired of Haileys comments on here as i would guess most people are! He knows nothing about weather. All he does is says the opposite of what everyone else says and thinks its funny

The NWS has put out a special weather statement concerning the upcoming winter storm. For the full details, head to their website ( http://www.crh.noaa.gov/sgf ) but here is a snippet of it:

SNOW WILL LIKELY DEVELOP OVER EASTERN KANSAS AND WESTERN MISSOURI
BY LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON THEN OVERSPREAD THE MISSOURI OZARKS
SUNDAY NIGHT. SNOW WILL CONTINUE MONDAY BEFORE ENDING LATE MONDAY
NIGHT. THE SNOW MAY BECOME MIXED WITH OR CHANGE TO RAIN AND SLEET
ON MONDAY ACROSS SOUTHERN MISSOURI AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS. THIS
WILL SIGNIFICANTLY IMPACT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS IF AND WHEN THIS
OCCURS.

HPC has this area under a 70% chance of getting at least 4 inches and a 40% chance of getting at least 8 inches. The past big storm from last week wasn't this good of odds till more closer to the event. Also there is around 1" of liquid moisture which would be 10" of snow if it is cold enough for all snow.

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wwd/day3_psnow_gt_04.gif
http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wwd/day3_psnow_gt_08.gif
http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/fill_99qwbg.gif

The temperature line is going to be critical as far snow is concerned. Still think it is looking like a major storm for the area, but we shall see what the models start doing with the storm tomorrow.

I think its going to be mostly a cold rain event I hope im wrong

weloveourhailey wrote:I think its going to be mostly a cold rain event I hope im wrong

Latest NAM model is colder and, as a result, snowier for this system.

Yeah, that 0z NAM is a little scary as far as the 0C 850 line hugging the state line. That would put most of the KSPR viewing area in a heck of a lot of snow.

0z NAM puts a LOT of snow down in the Ozarks.

Again, don't go buy all of the bread and milk at the store just yet... Let's give it another day of model runs and check back here through the day Saturday.

No matter how much snow we get, we are going to deal with another significant winter storm Sunday night and through the day Monday.

Another local station mentioned us just getting mostly rain and areas around kc and lake of the ozarks getting a ton of snow.

weloveourhailey wrote:Another local station mentioned us just getting mostly rain and areas around kc and lake of the ozarks getting a ton of snow.

Good for you for flipping around! I hope you take note of how this system actually pans out and remember which station gets it right!

KSPR Craig Carnesi wrote:

weloveourhailey wrote:Another local station mentioned us just getting mostly rain and areas around kc and lake of the ozarks getting a ton of snow.

Good for you for flipping around! I hope you take note of how this system actually pans out and remember which station gets it right!

Love it and I love KSPR! Only place I turn to for weather.

I was talking to a friend that said the same thing that Hailey said. Just a cold rain for here. Then, I look at the 0Z NAM and it just doesn't make sense. It moved the freezing line well further south. I don't understand how someone can make such a bold statement and go against the models like that.

Hailey, if you truly flip through the channels, you will find that KSPR is the most accurate forecast in the Ozarks. I look at other channels, just get other viewpoints on the weather, but only rely on what KSPR forecasts, because they are always right. Regardless of how you interpret the models, KSPR's mets interpret the models correctly. So, if you want to believe the other stations, go ahead. I will continue to believe what KSPR says and I will always be prepared the way I need to be for whatever weather comes our way.

Craig will it be just all snow or rain? Haven't heard anything about maybe a sleet or freezing rain event for Monday.

When a majority of the models, the majority of meteorologists, and the nws all agree...this is the consensus...outside of science perhaps its called "groupthink", but in science when a large majority all disprove the null hypothesis it is consensus. Will it necessarily happen? Maybe or maybe not, but it is based on a great deal of science, technology, ingenuity, and knowledge of the region and the past. Anyone could just counter-program and say I disagree with science, heck I bet that would be fun...to look at every forecast and come up with something different! However, it does no good to the hundreds of thousands of people relying on the best (most consistent) forecast possible....which has been KSPR for quite awhile.

Maybe it will snow, maybe it will rain, maybe dogs will meow, cats bark, and pigs fly.. Maybe a lot of things might happen, but I rely on the consensus within the scientific community...not stations going for ratings or chicken little. To other stations/posters/everyday folks: You must have great evidence to substantiate a great claim.

And just like that... the NWS issues a Winter Storm Watch for the entire SW MO Ozarks and Northern Arkansas for the potential of 6"+ of snow. No mention of a cold rain in the forecast.