Monday/Tuesday Feb. 8/9

The NWS this morning from the forecast discussion: THERMAL PROFILES SHOW TEMPERATURES SIGNIFICANTLY...2 TO 3 DEGREES...BELOW FREEZING BELOW 700MB MAKING ALL SNOW THE LIKELY PRECIPITATION TYPE. THIS INITIAL PERIOD OF SNOW WITH DEEP COLD AIR ALOFT WILL COINCIDE WITH HOURS OF DARKNESS LENDING TOWARD HIGH SNOW TO LIQUID RATIOS.

It looks like to me this will be a all snow event now. The only question is where the heaviest band of snow will set up? I think it is time for the Springfield area. A week ago the state line got 12-14" and yesterday it was areas up in Northern Pulaski county that got 6-10" of snow on a 1-3" forecast. Time for Springfield area to get in on the real fun!!!

I'm so ready to see today and tonight's model runs.

Here's my question. How can we be assured we won't have any dry slots develop? Can we be assured the atmosphere will be wet enough to not worry about dry slots? The big hole on the radar over Springfield sucked at the beginning of our last snow storm — and affected our totals.

springfieldnewsnut wrote:I'm so ready to see today and tonight's model runs.

Here's my question. How can we be assured we won't have any dry slots develop? Can we be assured the atmosphere will be wet enough to not worry about dry slots? The big hole on the radar over Springfield sucked at the beginning of our last snow storm — and affected our totals.

Aaron... good question. To my understanding (which is far less than a professional mets), it appears this system has much more moisture to work with and won't need to spend as much time saturating the atmosphere. The last system had quite a bit of dry air at the low levels to overcome. This system is already coming into an environment where the moisture hasn't even been completely scoured out. The low level moisture remains apparent from even the clouds this morning. We were several hours into the event for those across Arkansas and Oklahoma last time and we didn't have as much moisture in the low levels as we have right now.

I hope this makes sense???

Thanks Gary, that makes since to me and I had the same thought I am ready for a good snow in the Springfield area for sure! Hope the next few models stay consistent and bring on the snow. Can't wait to see what they say from all of you.

Yep. I figured our moisture would be higher starting out this time.

I really do feel like we could get a load out of this. I'm now waiting anxiously for the 12zs and then will be even more anxiously awaiting tonight's 0zs.

This mornings run are drier for Springfield Metro. Looks like Kansas is going to get hammered with this one

weloveourhailey wrote:This mornings run are drier for Springfield Metro. Looks like Kansas is going to get hammered with this one

Don't spread untruths.

The latest NAM paints much of the Ozarks with at least 5" of snow... KC only has 3-4". Some parts of the viewing receive over 10". Hailey... just stop.

Gary

What I was getting at there were models showing 15+ inches of snow in areas of the ozarks yesterday.

So the 12z NAM has the low tracking farther south, giving higher snowfall totals to Arkansas once again. I don't buy that.

I think the heaviest bands look to be setting up along and south of I-44 from Rolla to Monett?

It does seem like both the GFS and NAM have been trending down the snow totals the past run or two. I really hope this doesn't continue. I don't see how the NAM thinks Arkansas will get 12-16" of snow. Down in that area the temps will be close to or above freezing and more rain will be down there. If anything I would like Missouri would see more snow then Arkansas. Just depends where the low will track and how far the cold air will go south.

Yeah im not sure why Gary jumped my case when everyone else agrees the models came in with less snow like I said

maybe he is tired of your comments like everyone else because you post the exact opposite of what everyone else does.

I am tired of Haileys comments as well!!!

12z NAM



12z GFS


Obviously a big difference from yesterday's runs, but now it looks a little more believable. Still a good snow for the Ozarks. Remember the system is just now getting sampled on shore.

I just posted a new blog on KSPR.com.

Check it out: http://www.kspr.com/weather/bloghttp://www.kspr.com/weather/blog

After reading the new blog and seeing models it looks like it will be plenty cold in northern arkansas for all snow. That just figures. They are once again in the bullseye for the heaviest snow. I remember back several years ago when storms would lay down the heaviest snow in and around the Springfield area. Now it seems all of the storms go to the north, like yesterday, and south like a week ago and this coming storm. I still think the Springfield area will get around 5 or 6 inches like the last one a week ago, but much more snow will fall to the south!

What I expected is happening. Snow totals are trending down. I can see them trending down some more too. I am just being a voice of reason we live in the ozarks its very rare we see a foot of snow. My prediction for Springfield metro 3 inches.

how do you get 3 inches out of what the models are saying or what craig is saying??? You are just some random person that knows nothin about weather and likes to cause problems on the forum. You are negative about every storm no matter what craig kevin or anyone says.

I still think the models are overdoing the moisture for Springfield Metro I think the next couple model runs is going to continue to slide the heavier stuff more south. Again im not being negative I just realize we live in SW missouri not the snow belt of the US.

I know this is a KSPR board, but just find it odd what the NWS just posted. TOTAL SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION OF 3 TO 6 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND AREAS WEST OF MISSOURI HIGHWAY 65.

They didn't say anything about areas to the south like the models are showing. Sounds like they are keying in on the KS/MO state line. I wonder why they put us under a winter storm watch??? A winter weather advisory is considered 2-5 inches of snow. 3-6 inches is basically the same thing. Just odd how they have been getting so hyped up on this storm if they are only going to predict 3-6 inches.

Yeah looks like they are starting to fall in line with my prediction for 3 inches for Springfield Metro. I dunno I could be wrong. I don't even see us getting into the WSW levels here in the Metro. But we need to follow KSPR on this for the latest!

Here is the tough part about this forecast. Somewhere in the area a deformation zone will develop with this area of low pressure. Trying to pinpoint that is just about impossible until the event begins.

IF the area of low pressure moves along the track we think it will now, a deformation zone could set up on the backside of the low and increase snow totals across the western edge of our area.

BIG if and not something I would forecast at this point. In fact, that probably is NOT what the weather service is doing, I'm just throwing that out there as an option.

Either way, stay tuned.

As for weloveourhailey, we are all entitled to our own opinions and forecasts. That is the great thing about this message board. We encourage everyone to speak their mind!

As for the forecast, well, some of us are going to be wrong and some of us will be right. It is important to note, NO ONE from KSPR has issued a concrete forecast yet. There is a very general forecast on today's blog and that is the FIRST forecast of snow totals we have issued.

Yeah I wish Gary didnt attack someone with a different opinion than his own. Anyhow another local weather station put 6+ inches for the whole southern half of missouri. Talk about not going out on a limb lol

Hailey, maybe it's because we hear the same thing from you after each storm. I would be willing to bet that Tuesday you will be forecasting that winter is over, like you have been doing after each winter storm. Many of us, on here, are really getting tired of you acting like you're the expert and saying the exact opposite of what is being forecast by the real experts. Giving your opinion is one thing, but trying to make people think you're the expert is really getting tiring. I'm not trying to be mean, but if you are giving your opinion say it's your opinion and don't act like it's the actual forecast. If anyone new were to read this and see what you write, it could be a disastrous outcome. I would hate for someone to think you are a meteorologist and believe what you say. Make sure people know it's only your opinion. I like reading everyone's opinions, but I also know it's only an opinion and not fact.

NixaDorothy wrote:Hailey, maybe it's because we hear the same thing from you after each storm. I would be willing to bet that Tuesday you will be forecasting that winter is over, like you have been doing after each winter storm. Many of us, on here, are really getting tired of you acting like you're the expert and saying the exact opposite of what is being forecast by the real experts. Giving your opinion is one thing, but trying to make people think you're the expert is really getting tiring. I'm not trying to be mean, but if you are giving your opinion say it's your opinion and don't act like it's the actual forecast. If anyone new were to read this and see what you write, it could be a disastrous outcome. I would hate for someone to think you are a meteorologist and believe what you say. Make sure people know it's only your opinion. I like reading everyone's opinions, but I also know it's only an opinion and not fact.

How do you figure it would be a "disastrous outcome"? I don't pretend to be an expert. Im just an avg Joe that happens to have a different opinion that alot of wishcasters.